***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 16.03.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 20.03.2017.-26.03.2017. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 7 93 100 16.7 18.7 16.0 4.3 89.3 87.2 12.2 13.9 15.5 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 1 99 100 16.5 18.9 16.3 4.7 92.4 90.7 12.1 13.7 15.2 30 Becej 27400G00 0 3 97 100 17.4 19.7 16.7 4.7 90.7 88.8 12.5 14.3 16.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 20 80 100 9.4 10.6 12.3 3.3 80.1 77.8 3.9 6.2 8.3 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 4 96 100 17.8 19.5 14.8 4.4 87.1 85.2 12.5 14.4 16.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 4 96 100 16.7 18.5 12.9 4.5 86.6 84.8 11.0 13.1 15.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 0 100 100 16.2 18.8 16.2 4.7 93.1 91.6 11.8 13.4 14.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 1 99 100 5.9 7.9 13.5 5.0 88.5 87.1 0.5 2.5 4.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 4 96 100 17.7 19.9 16.0 4.6 88.8 87.0 12.3 14.4 16.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 2 98 100 17.8 20.0 14.6 5.1 89.0 87.5 12.1 14.2 16.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 2 98 100 17.8 19.7 15.4 4.6 87.5 85.6 12.2 14.3 16.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 1 99 100 17.2 19.2 14.2 4.7 87.8 86.2 11.2 13.4 15.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 0 100 100 17.9 19.9 15.1 4.8 88.4 87.0 12.1 14.2 16.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 2 98 100 17.7 20.5 16.6 5.4 92.0 90.8 12.7 14.5 16.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 21 79 100 16.6 17.6 14.4 2.9 79.5 77.1 11.6 13.7 15.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 3 97 100 18.2 20.1 14.7 4.5 87.1 85.3 12.5 14.6 16.6 30 Nis 06700G01 0 0 100 100 15.2 17.7 16.0 4.8 93.8 92.3 11.2 12.7 14.0 30 Palic 37000G16 0 0 100 100 17.4 19.9 14.2 5.5 90.7 89.5 11.7 13.7 15.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 2 98 100 16.7 19.2 16.5 4.7 92.3 90.6 12.2 13.9 15.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 0 100 100 12.3 15.4 12.1 5.6 91.9 90.8 6.4 8.5 10.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 5 95 100 17.6 19.7 16.6 4.6 89.1 87.0 12.5 14.4 16.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 1 99 100 16.4 19.1 16.4 4.9 93.7 92.3 12.2 13.7 15.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 2 98 100 17.2 19.7 16.8 5.0 92.4 90.9 12.6 14.3 15.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 1 99 100 17.7 20.3 16.3 5.3 91.0 89.7 12.4 14.3 16.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 6 94 100 16.8 18.5 14.9 4.2 87.5 85.4 12.2 13.9 15.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 1 99 100 17.2 18.9 13.0 4.4 86.9 85.6 11.5 13.6 15.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 4 96 100 16.9 19.0 15.6 4.4 89.9 88.0 12.2 13.9 15.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 21 79 100 17.3 18.4 13.3 3.2 79.6 77.3 11.9 14.1 16.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 0 100 100 12.6 15.7 13.8 5.7 91.9 90.7 6.6 8.8 10.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 1 99 100 16.5 18.9 16.3 4.6 91.8 90.0 12.0 13.6 15.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------