***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 16.03.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 27.03.2017.-02.04.2017. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 37 63 100 17.0 16.4 14.5 1.1 63.2 60.5 13.4 15.1 16.7 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 38 62 100 17.1 16.7 14.5 1.2 64.3 61.5 13.9 15.4 16.9 30 Becej 27400G00 0 39 61 100 17.4 16.8 14.7 1.1 62.2 60.0 14.1 15.7 17.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 78 22 100 8.2 8.6 11.5 0.9 60.2 57.9 5.9 7.6 9.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 77 23 100 16.4 16.8 12.9 1.0 61.1 58.9 14.0 15.7 17.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 79 21 100 15.3 15.8 10.9 1.1 61.6 59.2 13.1 14.7 16.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 35 65 100 16.8 16.5 14.5 1.2 65.1 62.1 13.8 15.2 16.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 80 20 100 4.2 4.8 11.3 1.3 63.0 60.8 2.2 3.7 5.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 77 23 100 16.1 16.5 13.6 1.0 60.8 58.9 13.7 15.4 17.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 79 21 100 16.2 16.7 12.2 1.2 61.8 59.9 13.9 15.5 17.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 78 22 100 16.2 16.7 13.1 1.1 61.1 59.1 13.9 15.6 17.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 78 22 100 15.5 16.1 12.2 1.2 62.5 60.3 13.1 14.8 16.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 37 63 100 17.7 17.1 12.5 1.2 63.2 61.0 14.2 15.8 17.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 80 20 100 16.5 17.1 13.7 1.2 62.3 60.6 14.4 15.9 17.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 78 22 100 15.8 16.0 13.2 0.8 59.8 57.9 13.6 15.2 16.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 77 23 100 16.7 17.3 12.6 1.1 62.2 59.9 14.3 16.1 17.7 30 Nis 06700G01 0 38 62 100 16.1 15.8 14.2 1.2 65.1 62.1 13.2 14.6 15.9 30 Palic 37000G16 0 37 63 100 17.1 16.5 11.8 1.3 63.1 61.1 13.5 15.2 16.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 37 63 100 17.0 16.6 14.6 1.1 63.7 61.2 13.9 15.4 16.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 33 67 100 12.0 11.9 9.7 1.7 67.9 64.9 8.6 10.2 11.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 77 23 100 16.3 16.6 14.4 1.0 61.0 58.9 13.9 15.6 17.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 38 62 100 17.1 16.7 14.3 1.2 64.0 61.5 13.9 15.4 16.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 37 63 100 17.5 17.0 14.7 1.2 63.4 61.1 14.3 15.8 17.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 78 22 100 16.4 16.8 13.6 1.1 61.5 59.8 14.1 15.8 17.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 38 62 100 17.0 16.4 13.2 1.0 62.4 59.9 13.8 15.3 16.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 34 66 100 17.1 16.8 11.5 1.4 66.3 63.2 13.7 15.3 16.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 36 64 100 17.3 16.8 14.0 1.1 63.8 61.1 14.0 15.5 17.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 78 22 100 15.9 16.2 12.2 0.8 59.5 57.5 13.5 15.2 16.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 33 67 100 12.1 11.6 11.2 1.5 65.2 62.9 8.4 10.1 11.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 37 63 100 17.0 16.5 14.5 1.1 64.0 61.3 13.8 15.3 16.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------