***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 16.03.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 03.04.2017.-09.04.2017. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 76 24 100 18.1 17.4 14.7 -0.1 49.2 49.6 15.7 17.4 19.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 78 22 100 18.2 17.6 14.5 -0.1 49.3 49.6 16.1 17.6 19.0 30 Becej 27400G00 0 77 23 100 18.6 17.8 14.9 -0.1 48.5 49.2 16.3 17.9 19.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 54 46 0 100 8.0 10.0 12.3 -0.3 46.3 47.3 8.5 10.4 12.3 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 76 24 100 19.0 17.9 13.0 -0.3 46.3 47.5 16.5 18.3 20.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 54 46 0 100 14.5 16.3 10.9 -0.4 45.0 45.6 14.9 16.8 18.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 77 23 100 18.0 17.4 14.5 0.0 49.5 49.7 15.9 17.4 18.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 75 25 100 6.1 4.9 11.3 -0.4 45.6 46.8 3.7 5.3 6.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 76 24 100 18.6 17.5 13.4 -0.3 46.8 48.0 16.1 17.8 19.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 76 24 100 18.7 17.5 12.2 -0.3 46.2 47.4 16.1 17.9 19.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 52 48 0 100 15.8 17.5 12.7 -0.4 45.7 46.7 16.1 18.0 19.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 53 47 0 100 14.8 16.5 12.2 -0.4 45.4 46.4 15.2 17.0 18.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 51 49 0 100 15.7 17.4 11.6 -0.4 45.6 46.3 16.0 17.8 19.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 80 20 100 18.4 17.6 13.4 -0.1 48.3 49.3 16.1 17.8 19.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 54 46 0 100 15.9 17.6 13.1 -0.2 46.9 47.7 16.2 17.8 19.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 54 46 0 100 16.1 17.8 12.2 -0.4 45.5 46.3 16.5 18.3 20.1 30 Nis 06700G01 0 77 23 100 17.3 16.7 14.4 0.0 49.5 49.7 15.3 16.7 18.0 30 Palic 37000G16 0 77 23 100 18.2 17.2 11.9 -0.3 47.0 48.1 15.7 17.5 19.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 80 20 100 18.0 17.4 14.7 -0.1 49.2 49.6 15.9 17.5 19.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 76 24 100 12.6 11.6 9.2 -0.2 47.7 48.4 10.2 11.9 13.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 75 25 100 18.7 17.7 14.2 -0.2 47.3 48.3 16.3 18.0 19.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 80 20 100 17.9 17.4 14.4 0.0 49.4 49.9 16.0 17.4 18.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 80 20 100 18.3 17.7 14.8 -0.1 49.3 49.8 16.2 17.7 19.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 77 23 100 18.4 17.4 13.3 -0.2 47.5 48.6 16.0 17.7 19.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 76 24 100 18.5 17.6 13.1 -0.1 48.2 48.9 16.2 17.8 19.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 77 23 100 17.7 16.9 11.6 0.0 49.7 49.7 15.2 16.9 18.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 76 24 100 18.5 17.8 14.0 -0.1 49.3 49.6 16.2 17.8 19.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 55 45 0 100 15.8 17.6 12.5 -0.3 45.8 46.8 16.3 18.1 19.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 77 23 100 12.8 11.9 11.0 -0.2 47.6 48.5 10.4 12.1 13.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 78 22 100 18.1 17.5 14.6 0.0 49.4 49.7 16.0 17.5 19.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------