***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 16.03.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 10.04.2017.-16.04.2017. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 78 22 100 16.6 16.9 16.8 0.8 60.2 57.2 14.7 16.1 17.4 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 77 23 100 16.6 16.9 16.6 0.8 60.9 57.9 14.5 16.0 17.4 30 Becej 27400G00 0 78 22 100 16.8 17.0 17.0 0.7 59.3 56.4 14.8 16.2 17.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 77 23 100 9.8 9.8 14.6 0.6 57.6 54.5 7.8 9.2 10.5 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 79 21 100 17.3 17.4 15.3 0.6 57.6 54.7 15.4 16.8 18.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 78 22 100 16.5 16.4 13.3 0.4 55.0 52.4 14.5 16.0 17.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 79 21 100 16.5 16.9 16.6 0.8 61.1 58.3 14.5 16.0 17.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 77 23 100 5.2 5.1 13.6 0.5 55.4 53.4 3.3 4.7 6.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 78 22 100 16.8 16.9 15.7 0.7 57.9 55.2 14.9 16.3 17.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 78 22 100 16.9 16.9 14.5 0.6 56.7 54.3 15.0 16.4 17.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 77 23 100 17.2 17.2 15.1 0.6 56.9 54.1 15.3 16.7 18.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 77 23 100 16.4 16.3 14.6 0.5 56.1 53.8 14.4 15.8 17.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 77 23 100 17.5 17.4 13.9 0.5 56.6 54.0 15.4 16.9 18.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 79 21 100 16.5 16.7 15.6 0.7 58.2 55.2 14.5 16.0 17.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 77 23 100 17.2 17.3 15.3 0.6 58.3 54.7 15.5 16.7 17.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 77 23 100 17.6 17.6 14.6 0.6 57.0 54.1 15.7 17.0 18.3 30 Nis 06700G01 0 76 24 100 16.0 16.4 16.5 0.8 61.5 58.5 14.0 15.4 16.8 30 Palic 37000G16 0 78 22 100 16.3 16.3 14.2 0.6 56.9 54.5 14.3 15.7 17.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 77 23 100 16.5 16.8 16.8 0.8 60.5 57.5 14.3 15.8 17.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 78 22 100 11.6 11.4 11.3 0.4 54.8 53.6 9.5 11.0 12.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 78 22 100 16.9 17.0 16.4 0.7 58.3 55.5 15.0 16.4 17.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 76 24 100 16.6 16.9 16.4 0.8 60.4 57.4 14.4 16.0 17.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 77 23 100 16.7 17.0 16.9 0.8 60.2 57.0 14.6 16.1 17.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 79 21 100 16.5 16.6 15.6 0.7 58.1 55.3 14.5 16.0 17.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 79 21 100 16.9 17.1 15.3 0.7 59.6 56.5 15.2 16.4 17.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 76 24 100 16.8 16.9 13.9 0.7 59.1 55.8 14.8 16.2 17.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 79 21 100 16.8 17.1 16.2 0.8 60.7 57.7 14.9 16.3 17.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 77 23 100 17.2 17.2 14.8 0.6 57.1 53.8 15.5 16.7 17.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 78 22 100 11.1 11.1 13.2 0.5 56.2 54.3 9.1 10.5 11.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 77 23 100 16.5 16.8 16.7 0.8 60.5 57.6 14.5 15.9 17.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------