***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 16.03.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 20.03.2017.-26.03.2017. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 79 21 100 7.2 4.6 9.7 64.2 47.0 41.3 2.3 5.2 9.6 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 81 19 100 7.0 6.5 10.3 81.2 55.2 48.4 2.8 5.4 9.2 30 Becej 27400G00 0 81 19 100 8.6 6.0 10.0 65.9 48.4 42.9 3.1 6.5 11.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 79 21 100 8.0 7.7 15.3 83.7 56.1 48.9 4.0 6.6 9.9 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 80 20 100 6.9 4.9 12.1 68.3 48.4 43.0 2.5 5.2 9.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 83 17 100 6.8 6.6 15.5 86.9 56.3 50.7 2.7 5.3 9.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 80 20 100 6.6 6.8 11.2 90.2 58.9 50.5 2.5 5.0 8.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 81 19 100 14.4 12.9 15.7 80.9 53.1 48.6 6.9 11.8 18.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 85 15 100 6.0 4.8 12.1 70.9 49.3 45.1 2.5 4.9 8.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 83 17 100 7.6 5.6 14.5 73.2 49.5 45.7 2.4 5.7 10.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 80 20 100 7.9 5.9 12.9 72.3 50.5 45.1 2.7 5.8 10.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 79 21 100 8.2 7.3 14.3 83.2 54.8 49.2 3.0 6.1 10.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 81 19 100 8.2 6.9 14.2 78.1 52.3 47.0 3.3 6.4 10.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 85 15 100 12.3 10.8 14.4 74.3 51.4 47.9 6.1 10.5 16.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 80 20 100 7.3 9.3 16.2 103.9 65.1 53.6 2.5 5.4 9.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 83 17 100 6.3 5.7 14.0 79.2 53.8 48.2 2.6 5.0 8.4 30 Nis 06700G01 0 81 19 100 7.8 8.1 10.8 87.9 58.6 50.7 3.6 6.3 9.9 30 Palic 37000G16 0 84 16 100 7.7 6.3 15.5 75.5 50.1 46.9 3.3 6.3 10.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 82 18 100 7.5 6.2 10.0 75.0 52.4 46.6 2.6 5.7 10.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 82 18 100 9.9 7.5 16.6 74.2 49.7 46.0 3.7 7.6 13.3 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 80 20 100 6.6 5.0 11.4 69.3 49.2 43.9 2.8 5.2 8.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 81 19 100 8.2 7.6 10.5 79.7 55.0 48.4 3.6 6.6 10.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 83 17 100 8.2 6.6 10.3 70.3 50.5 46.0 3.3 6.5 11.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 83 17 100 10.5 8.1 13.0 70.2 48.7 45.0 4.5 8.5 14.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 75 25 100 6.3 3.9 11.3 64.2 46.2 39.7 2.2 4.5 7.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 84 16 100 5.8 6.1 14.9 88.1 57.6 52.3 2.2 4.6 8.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 77 23 100 6.3 4.3 10.4 66.5 47.7 41.2 2.4 4.7 7.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 82 18 100 5.4 6.1 16.0 93.8 60.5 51.9 1.8 4.1 7.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 83 17 100 14.1 11.6 15.8 75.4 50.2 46.6 6.3 11.5 18.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 81 19 100 6.7 5.8 10.2 76.8 53.4 46.3 2.6 5.2 8.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------