***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 16.03.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 27.03.2017.-02.04.2017. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 76 24 100 8.0 8.1 13.1 95.2 59.7 47.3 3.0 5.9 9.9 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 54 46 0 100 2.7 6.2 11.0 86.7 56.3 45.9 2.4 4.9 8.6 30 Becej 27400G00 0 76 24 100 9.5 9.8 13.5 97.4 60.6 48.6 3.4 6.9 11.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 78 22 100 12.2 13.3 16.2 98.9 61.1 49.8 4.7 9.2 15.5 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 79 21 100 8.9 9.9 15.8 100.7 61.8 50.2 3.6 6.8 11.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 79 21 100 10.0 10.7 17.9 99.3 60.4 50.6 4.0 7.6 12.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 76 24 100 6.7 6.0 10.8 85.8 56.1 45.9 2.4 4.9 8.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 77 23 100 14.6 17.4 18.3 108.8 64.7 52.5 6.1 11.2 18.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 78 22 100 8.5 9.4 15.6 100.7 61.6 49.1 2.9 6.2 10.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 77 23 100 10.6 13.1 17.9 109.2 65.1 52.7 3.7 7.7 13.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 78 22 100 9.7 11.2 17.3 104.7 63.0 51.5 3.5 7.2 12.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 77 23 100 9.7 11.1 17.2 105.0 63.0 50.5 3.4 7.0 12.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 78 22 100 11.4 12.7 18.5 102.1 61.8 49.9 4.3 8.6 14.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 51 49 0 100 5.1 11.3 16.8 94.3 58.3 47.3 4.5 8.7 14.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 57 43 0 100 4.2 12.6 14.5 94.3 59.7 45.7 3.4 8.3 15.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 78 22 100 10.3 11.4 17.4 102.4 61.9 50.1 4.1 7.8 13.0 30 Nis 06700G01 56 44 0 100 2.5 6.3 10.6 86.9 56.3 47.0 2.2 4.9 8.9 30 Palic 37000G16 0 76 24 100 7.8 9.6 19.2 111.3 65.3 53.2 2.7 5.6 9.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 54 46 0 100 2.6 6.2 11.4 86.4 56.0 45.5 2.1 4.9 9.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 78 22 100 9.1 11.4 21.9 114.1 66.4 55.3 3.9 7.1 11.3 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 76 24 100 9.3 9.3 14.3 96.2 59.8 47.2 3.1 6.6 11.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 55 45 0 100 3.2 7.0 11.0 85.1 55.6 46.5 3.1 5.8 9.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 53 47 0 100 4.0 8.2 12.5 88.4 56.3 45.4 3.8 6.8 10.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 51 49 0 100 3.7 9.8 16.7 101.0 61.2 48.8 3.0 6.5 11.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 78 22 100 11.2 10.8 14.5 90.5 56.6 46.0 5.2 8.9 13.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 79 21 100 9.3 10.1 18.0 100.8 61.0 50.3 3.4 6.9 12.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 76 24 100 9.1 8.8 13.7 92.6 58.3 46.9 3.1 6.5 11.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 77 23 100 10.6 12.1 16.1 102.0 62.7 49.8 4.1 7.9 13.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 75 25 100 12.7 15.6 20.7 112.4 65.7 53.8 4.4 9.1 15.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 55 45 0 100 3.2 7.5 11.5 89.2 57.5 45.8 2.9 5.8 9.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------