***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 16.03.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 10.04.2017.-16.04.2017. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 55 45 0 100 5.1 11.3 13.1 85.3 56.0 46.6 4.8 9.2 15.6 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 60 40 0 100 5.0 12.1 12.7 91.8 59.0 47.4 5.1 9.2 14.9 30 Becej 27400G00 53 47 0 100 7.1 14.9 14.3 93.5 59.1 47.1 6.9 11.6 17.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 55 45 0 100 11.9 21.9 14.8 93.1 59.4 47.3 12.2 18.1 25.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 51 49 0 100 9.2 16.7 15.0 94.7 59.7 48.0 9.0 13.5 19.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 60 40 0 100 8.0 18.1 18.5 107.4 64.3 52.6 8.6 13.1 18.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 54 46 0 100 5.6 11.9 12.6 92.8 59.6 48.5 5.5 9.2 13.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 76 24 100 25.6 28.1 18.0 105.5 63.5 51.2 16.2 22.2 29.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 56 44 0 100 6.4 12.7 15.2 89.8 57.3 46.2 6.5 10.6 15.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 51 49 0 100 9.4 18.1 18.0 98.6 60.6 49.2 9.1 14.3 20.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 55 45 0 100 8.1 16.6 15.2 99.5 61.6 48.8 8.2 12.7 18.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 75 25 100 15.8 17.9 16.3 107.4 64.7 51.4 8.1 12.8 18.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 77 23 100 16.5 19.9 18.5 110.5 65.8 52.4 7.8 13.2 20.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 75 25 100 18.8 19.3 18.7 95.9 60.1 49.7 9.7 15.2 22.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 57 43 0 100 5.9 14.3 13.2 93.0 60.5 46.7 5.9 10.5 16.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 75 25 100 16.3 18.5 16.7 106.1 64.3 50.7 8.2 13.1 19.2 30 Nis 06700G01 54 46 0 100 4.7 11.0 12.3 92.6 59.5 48.4 4.4 8.2 13.3 30 Palic 37000G16 0 77 23 100 14.9 16.2 19.9 102.5 62.1 50.3 8.6 12.6 17.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 59 41 0 100 5.3 13.7 13.7 94.2 59.9 47.7 5.2 10.0 16.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 78 22 100 14.2 16.3 21.2 107.3 64.0 52.2 7.6 11.8 17.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 52 48 0 100 7.1 13.0 14.1 88.8 57.2 45.5 6.9 10.9 16.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 64 36 0 100 4.8 13.9 14.1 97.8 61.3 49.2 5.2 9.8 16.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 55 45 0 100 6.5 14.9 15.0 97.0 60.9 48.7 6.4 11.0 17.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 51 49 0 100 7.0 15.8 18.1 100.3 61.5 49.0 6.5 11.5 17.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 54 46 0 100 6.7 13.5 14.6 86.9 56.3 45.9 6.5 11.3 17.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 76 24 100 15.7 18.4 17.8 111.4 66.4 53.2 8.9 13.2 18.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 52 48 0 100 7.2 14.1 13.5 84.2 55.3 46.5 6.7 12.1 19.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 57 43 0 100 7.4 17.1 15.0 98.7 62.1 49.0 7.5 12.5 19.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 76 24 100 21.7 23.7 20.0 104.0 62.7 50.9 12.0 18.1 25.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 59 41 0 100 4.4 10.8 13.0 91.2 58.7 47.3 4.4 8.2 13.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------