***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 16.03.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 20.03.2017.-16.04.2017. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 54 46 0 100 27.5 31.9 47.8 80.7 39.6 39.0 28.2 38.2 49.7 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 55 45 0 100 21.0 28.0 45.3 86.0 44.1 42.2 21.4 31.9 44.6 30 Becej 27400G00 54 46 0 100 29.9 36.4 49.3 83.5 41.8 40.2 30.6 42.3 55.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 51 49 0 100 45.9 53.7 59.2 88.6 46.4 43.6 46.5 55.6 65.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 52 48 0 100 34.0 40.3 55.3 84.6 42.7 40.3 34.5 44.5 55.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 77 23 100 46.7 42.5 67.9 96.1 51.8 48.5 30.7 41.3 52.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 52 48 0 100 19.4 26.4 45.2 86.8 45.5 43.1 19.1 29.3 41.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 78 22 100 76.7 72.2 68.1 96.6 52.5 48.3 55.7 70.1 85.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 55 45 0 100 30.6 36.5 56.3 84.5 42.5 40.2 31.7 40.2 49.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 76 24 100 55.5 48.9 66.3 91.0 47.5 44.4 40.3 50.4 61.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 76 24 100 49.5 41.2 58.0 89.3 46.2 43.1 32.9 43.6 56.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 77 23 100 49.9 46.5 62.0 96.6 52.8 48.0 34.7 44.8 55.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 52 48 0 100 35.1 46.7 67.0 94.6 50.3 46.1 35.7 46.5 58.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 52 48 0 100 41.3 48.2 65.7 86.4 42.4 40.7 42.0 53.6 66.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 78 22 100 48.3 44.8 56.5 94.0 52.4 48.3 33.6 43.5 54.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 76 24 100 46.5 39.9 61.7 92.4 48.7 45.0 30.1 40.6 52.7 30 Nis 06700G01 54 46 0 100 21.7 29.0 43.8 86.5 45.1 42.9 22.1 31.9 43.5 30 Palic 37000G16 0 76 24 100 45.9 41.3 72.7 94.8 50.2 46.6 32.2 41.1 51.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 55 45 0 100 24.9 32.0 46.6 85.0 42.7 41.2 25.6 37.0 50.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 82 18 100 49.1 48.1 81.5 99.5 54.8 50.3 35.1 45.2 56.0 29 Sjenica 27900G10 57 43 0 100 28.1 33.7 51.8 82.1 40.7 38.7 29.4 38.9 49.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 52 48 0 100 23.5 30.2 46.4 85.7 44.0 42.3 23.4 34.5 47.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 51 49 0 100 28.6 34.2 49.8 84.5 42.2 40.8 28.7 39.1 51.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 53 47 0 100 34.0 42.1 62.8 88.2 44.5 42.0 34.8 45.7 58.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 57 43 0 100 30.8 35.3 53.9 79.9 38.4 37.5 32.3 42.0 52.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 76 24 100 45.4 43.7 67.0 99.5 55.4 50.3 30.7 40.2 51.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 57 43 0 100 29.1 34.2 50.6 80.9 39.5 38.8 30.5 40.3 51.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 77 23 100 45.8 41.8 60.0 93.9 51.2 47.4 31.8 41.1 51.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 79 21 100 71.0 66.9 76.2 97.1 52.3 48.3 51.7 64.9 79.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 55 45 0 100 19.4 25.7 46.0 85.0 43.3 41.6 19.8 30.0 42.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------