***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 17.03.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 21.03.2016.-27.03.2016. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 89 11 100 3.5 4.5 3.8 1.1 64.7 63.2 1.7 3.2 4.6 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 93 7 100 3.1 3.6 3.2 0.6 58.6 57.6 1.5 2.9 4.2 30 Becej 27400G00 0 91 9 100 5.4 6.4 4.2 1.1 65.0 63.7 3.9 5.2 6.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 48 52 100 0.6 0.9 1.8 1.4 68.5 67.4 -2.4 -0.8 0.6 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 44 56 100 3.7 3.9 2.9 1.4 68.8 67.4 0.7 2.2 3.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 16 84 100 3.4 3.7 1.0 2.5 77.4 76.4 -0.1 1.3 2.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 92 8 100 3.2 3.7 3.1 0.6 58.7 57.6 1.7 3.0 4.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 17 83 100 -1.4 -1.2 0.9 2.2 75.2 74.1 -5.8 -4.0 -2.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 42 58 100 4.7 4.9 3.0 1.4 70.3 68.9 1.8 3.2 4.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 30 70 100 4.7 4.8 1.6 1.8 71.9 70.6 1.9 3.2 4.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 35 65 100 4.5 4.6 2.7 1.6 70.7 69.5 1.7 3.0 4.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 31 69 100 3.4 3.5 1.8 1.7 71.5 70.5 0.2 1.6 3.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 29 71 100 4.2 4.2 2.0 1.8 71.1 70.1 1.2 2.5 3.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 89 11 100 3.8 4.7 2.7 1.2 66.3 65.3 2.3 3.5 4.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 41 59 100 4.4 4.6 3.2 1.4 70.1 68.7 1.9 3.2 4.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 33 67 100 5.1 5.1 2.2 1.6 70.3 69.2 2.0 3.4 4.8 30 Nis 06700G01 0 93 7 100 3.3 3.4 2.7 0.3 54.4 53.7 1.9 3.1 4.3 30 Palic 37000G16 0 35 65 100 2.6 2.7 1.1 1.8 70.7 69.7 0.0 1.2 2.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 92 8 100 3.2 3.8 3.4 0.8 61.2 60.1 1.6 3.0 4.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 15 85 100 0.7 1.0 -0.3 2.8 77.7 76.3 -3.2 -1.7 -0.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 90 10 100 3.2 4.3 3.9 1.1 65.8 64.6 1.5 3.0 4.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 93 7 100 2.7 3.1 3.2 0.5 57.7 56.8 1.3 2.5 3.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 89 11 100 2.8 3.7 3.6 1.1 65.8 64.5 1.2 2.5 3.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 88 12 100 3.2 4.1 2.9 1.3 67.3 66.2 1.7 2.9 4.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 88 12 100 3.2 4.3 3.4 1.3 66.8 65.4 1.5 2.9 4.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 17 83 100 4.3 4.5 1.6 2.3 76.1 75.0 1.2 2.4 3.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 89 11 100 3.5 4.6 3.5 1.1 64.4 62.8 1.5 3.2 4.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 47 53 100 2.9 3.0 2.4 1.4 67.6 66.6 0.3 1.6 2.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 22 78 100 2.3 2.5 0.5 2.4 75.0 73.9 -1.5 0.1 1.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 92 8 100 3.5 4.4 3.6 0.8 61.9 60.7 1.9 3.3 4.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------