***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 17.03.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 28.03.2016.-03.04.2016. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 81 19 100 4.5 4.6 5.0 0.4 56.3 54.8 3.1 4.2 5.2 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 80 20 100 4.4 4.4 4.5 0.3 54.4 53.4 3.2 4.1 5.0 30 Becej 27400G00 0 78 22 100 6.9 6.8 5.0 0.3 54.3 53.1 5.4 6.5 7.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 85 15 100 0.9 1.0 2.3 0.4 56.7 54.9 -0.7 0.5 1.7 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 83 17 100 3.4 3.3 3.0 0.2 53.5 52.3 1.8 3.0 4.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 87 13 100 2.4 2.8 0.8 0.6 60.5 58.4 1.2 2.2 3.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 79 21 100 4.5 4.5 4.5 0.3 54.9 53.8 3.3 4.2 5.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 86 14 100 -2.6 -2.2 0.9 0.6 59.9 58.2 -4.2 -2.9 -1.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 81 19 100 4.4 4.2 3.1 0.1 52.0 51.1 3.0 4.0 5.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 84 16 100 4.4 4.5 1.6 0.4 55.7 54.6 3.0 4.1 5.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 84 16 100 4.1 4.0 2.4 0.2 53.3 52.1 2.6 3.8 4.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 86 14 100 2.6 2.8 1.7 0.4 56.3 54.8 1.2 2.3 3.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 83 17 100 3.5 3.3 1.3 0.1 52.0 50.9 2.1 3.2 4.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 82 18 100 4.9 4.7 2.9 0.1 52.5 51.3 3.6 4.6 5.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 82 18 100 4.6 4.7 3.5 0.4 57.2 55.6 3.2 4.3 5.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 85 15 100 4.7 4.6 1.8 0.2 53.0 51.7 3.3 4.4 5.5 30 Nis 06700G01 0 80 20 100 4.7 4.6 4.3 0.2 53.7 52.6 3.6 4.4 5.2 30 Palic 37000G16 0 83 17 100 2.1 2.1 1.2 0.3 55.2 53.9 0.8 1.8 2.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 80 20 100 4.4 4.4 4.6 0.3 54.6 53.6 3.2 4.1 5.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 84 16 100 -0.4 0.0 -0.6 0.8 61.4 59.5 -2.0 -0.8 0.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 81 19 100 4.3 4.1 4.4 0.2 53.1 52.0 2.7 3.9 5.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 81 19 100 3.8 3.8 4.4 0.3 54.6 53.3 2.7 3.6 4.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 82 18 100 4.0 4.0 4.5 0.3 55.6 54.4 2.7 3.7 4.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 82 18 100 4.2 4.0 3.0 0.1 52.1 51.3 2.8 3.9 4.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 83 17 100 4.5 4.7 4.0 0.5 57.0 55.4 3.1 4.2 5.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 83 17 100 3.5 3.5 1.0 0.3 55.0 53.4 2.1 3.2 4.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 82 18 100 5.0 5.1 4.5 0.4 55.9 54.6 3.4 4.6 5.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 84 16 100 2.7 2.7 2.6 0.3 55.0 53.4 1.2 2.3 3.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 84 16 100 1.5 1.8 0.6 0.6 58.2 56.8 -0.1 1.2 2.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 80 20 100 4.9 4.8 4.7 0.3 55.3 54.1 3.5 4.5 5.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------