***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 17.03.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 21.03.2016.-17.04.2016. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 36 64 100 5.7 5.7 5.8 0.8 69.3 65.7 4.1 4.8 5.6 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 39 61 100 5.3 5.3 5.4 0.7 67.5 64.2 3.8 4.5 5.2 30 Becej 27400G00 0 37 63 100 7.6 7.6 5.8 0.8 68.4 65.2 6.0 6.8 7.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 40 60 100 1.8 1.8 3.1 0.8 68.2 65.1 0.0 0.9 1.7 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 41 59 100 4.4 4.4 3.8 0.7 67.2 64.3 2.9 3.6 4.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 36 64 100 3.5 3.8 1.7 1.1 73.7 70.5 2.0 2.7 3.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 41 59 100 5.4 5.4 5.3 0.7 67.8 64.1 4.0 4.7 5.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 32 68 100 -1.5 -1.3 1.8 1.1 74.2 71.4 -3.5 -2.6 -1.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 38 62 100 5.3 5.2 4.0 0.7 67.5 64.5 3.9 4.5 5.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 36 64 100 5.3 5.3 2.6 0.9 70.5 67.6 3.9 4.6 5.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 41 59 100 5.0 5.0 3.2 0.7 67.9 65.2 3.7 4.3 4.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 39 61 100 3.7 3.8 2.6 0.9 70.0 67.5 2.2 2.9 3.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 40 60 100 4.5 4.5 2.2 0.7 66.5 64.3 3.2 3.8 4.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 32 68 100 5.7 5.7 4.0 0.8 69.9 66.4 4.4 5.0 5.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 85 15 100 5.1 5.5 4.3 0.7 66.8 63.9 4.3 4.9 5.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 41 59 100 5.6 5.6 2.7 0.7 66.6 64.1 4.2 4.9 5.5 30 Nis 06700G01 0 81 19 100 5.0 5.3 5.1 0.6 65.3 62.1 4.1 4.8 5.4 30 Palic 37000G16 0 31 69 100 3.1 3.1 2.2 1.0 70.5 67.6 1.9 2.4 2.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 35 65 100 5.4 5.3 5.4 0.8 68.8 65.4 3.8 4.5 5.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 27 73 100 0.7 1.0 0.3 1.5 77.3 74.3 -0.9 -0.2 0.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 36 64 100 5.3 5.3 5.3 0.7 67.6 64.6 3.7 4.5 5.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 39 61 100 4.8 4.7 5.2 0.7 67.3 63.9 3.5 4.1 4.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 27 73 100 5.0 5.0 5.4 0.9 71.1 67.5 3.4 4.1 4.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 33 67 100 5.1 5.1 3.9 0.7 68.1 65.1 3.7 4.4 5.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 35 65 100 5.4 5.5 4.7 0.9 70.3 66.6 3.8 4.6 5.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 44 56 100 4.4 4.5 1.9 0.9 70.2 67.8 3.0 3.7 4.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 40 60 100 6.0 6.0 5.3 0.8 69.0 65.3 4.2 5.1 5.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 84 16 100 3.3 3.7 3.4 0.6 65.0 62.5 2.5 3.1 3.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 30 70 100 2.5 2.7 1.6 1.2 74.4 71.2 0.7 1.5 2.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 37 63 100 5.8 5.8 5.6 0.8 68.7 65.2 4.2 4.9 5.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------