***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 17.03.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 21.03.2016.-27.03.2016. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 85 15 100 14.6 14.4 12.7 0.2 52.1 51.1 12.6 14.2 15.6 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 82 18 100 14.5 13.9 12.4 -0.1 48.3 47.7 12.6 14.0 15.4 30 Becej 27400G00 0 81 19 100 15.2 14.5 12.8 -0.1 48.6 48.1 13.0 14.6 16.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 85 15 100 7.1 6.7 9.9 0.1 51.3 50.7 4.5 6.6 8.5 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 84 16 100 15.3 15.0 11.4 0.2 51.7 51.2 13.0 14.8 16.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 89 11 100 14.0 14.7 9.9 1.1 59.5 58.7 11.5 13.6 15.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 84 16 100 14.2 13.8 12.3 0.0 50.1 49.4 12.3 13.8 15.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 84 16 100 3.4 3.2 9.6 0.4 53.7 53.2 0.9 2.8 4.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 82 18 100 15.3 14.6 12.2 -0.1 49.4 49.0 12.9 14.7 16.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 82 18 100 15.2 14.6 10.4 0.0 50.3 50.0 12.6 14.6 16.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 83 17 100 15.2 14.7 11.7 0.1 51.1 50.7 12.7 14.6 16.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 85 15 100 14.3 14.3 10.6 0.4 53.9 53.4 11.8 13.8 15.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 88 12 100 15.1 15.5 11.7 0.7 57.0 56.3 12.7 14.7 16.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 55 45 0 100 12.7 14.2 11.6 -0.6 43.8 44.2 13.1 14.8 16.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 84 16 100 14.6 14.2 12.3 0.1 51.5 51.0 12.2 14.0 15.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 85 15 100 15.6 15.6 11.3 0.4 54.4 53.8 13.1 15.1 16.9 30 Nis 06700G01 0 79 21 100 13.5 12.9 11.9 -0.1 48.2 47.6 11.7 13.0 14.2 30 Palic 37000G16 0 77 23 100 14.9 14.0 9.5 -0.1 49.1 48.8 12.2 14.1 15.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 79 21 100 14.7 14.0 12.5 -0.2 47.7 47.2 12.7 14.2 15.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 83 17 100 9.5 9.7 7.7 0.7 57.4 56.1 6.8 8.9 10.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 83 17 100 15.2 14.7 12.9 -0.1 49.2 48.7 13.0 14.7 16.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 79 21 100 14.5 13.8 12.1 -0.2 47.3 46.9 12.7 14.0 15.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 77 23 100 15.2 14.3 12.6 -0.3 46.9 46.6 13.1 14.6 16.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 76 24 100 15.4 14.2 11.6 -0.4 46.0 46.0 12.8 14.6 16.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 88 12 100 14.6 14.6 11.9 0.3 53.5 52.5 12.7 14.3 15.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 89 11 100 14.4 15.3 10.1 1.2 61.1 60.3 12.1 14.1 15.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 88 12 100 14.6 14.7 12.3 0.4 54.3 53.2 12.7 14.3 15.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 86 14 100 14.9 14.6 11.0 0.2 51.5 51.0 12.5 14.5 16.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 78 22 100 10.0 9.5 9.0 0.2 52.5 51.6 7.1 9.2 11.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 84 16 100 14.4 13.9 12.5 0.0 49.6 48.9 12.4 13.9 15.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------