***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 17.03.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 28.03.2016.-03.04.2016. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 79 21 100 16.3 16.6 14.6 0.7 59.3 57.5 14.1 15.7 17.2 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 77 23 100 16.6 16.7 14.5 0.6 58.9 57.3 14.6 16.0 17.3 30 Becej 27400G00 0 77 23 100 16.8 16.9 14.8 0.6 58.1 56.4 14.7 16.2 17.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 79 21 100 8.6 8.5 11.7 0.4 55.1 54.0 6.3 8.0 9.6 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 78 22 100 16.8 16.8 13.0 0.6 57.0 55.5 14.5 16.2 17.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 78 22 100 15.6 15.9 11.1 0.8 59.5 57.3 13.4 15.0 16.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 76 24 100 16.4 16.5 14.4 0.6 58.7 57.2 14.5 15.8 17.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 79 21 100 4.4 4.8 11.6 0.9 61.1 58.9 2.4 3.9 5.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 78 22 100 16.5 16.5 13.8 0.6 57.4 55.8 14.3 15.9 17.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 78 22 100 16.6 16.8 12.5 0.8 59.4 57.4 14.3 15.9 17.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 79 21 100 16.6 16.8 13.3 0.7 58.6 56.7 14.4 16.0 17.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 79 21 100 15.8 16.2 12.4 0.8 60.6 58.5 13.5 15.2 16.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 79 21 100 16.8 17.1 12.6 0.8 60.4 58.2 14.6 16.2 17.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 51 49 0 100 14.6 17.1 13.9 0.7 58.6 57.1 14.9 16.4 17.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 81 19 100 16.0 15.8 13.2 0.2 52.8 52.2 14.1 15.5 16.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 78 22 100 17.1 17.3 12.7 0.7 58.5 56.7 14.8 16.5 18.0 30 Nis 06700G01 0 76 24 100 15.7 15.9 14.2 0.7 59.3 57.5 13.9 15.2 16.4 30 Palic 37000G16 0 76 24 100 16.3 16.6 12.0 0.9 60.5 58.3 14.0 15.6 17.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 77 23 100 16.5 16.6 14.6 0.7 59.0 57.3 14.4 15.9 17.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 78 22 100 11.1 11.7 9.8 1.1 63.8 60.9 8.9 10.5 12.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 78 22 100 16.7 16.8 14.5 0.6 57.6 56.0 14.5 16.1 17.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 36 64 100 17.5 16.7 14.4 0.7 59.6 57.7 14.5 15.9 17.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 51 49 0 100 14.5 17.0 14.8 0.7 59.1 57.3 14.8 16.3 17.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 76 24 100 16.8 17.0 13.8 0.7 59.0 57.2 14.7 16.2 17.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 79 21 100 16.4 16.6 13.3 0.7 58.6 56.8 14.4 15.8 17.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 80 20 100 16.1 16.7 11.5 0.9 62.9 60.0 14.0 15.5 17.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 79 21 100 16.6 16.9 14.1 0.7 59.9 57.9 14.6 16.1 17.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 79 21 100 16.2 15.9 12.3 0.3 54.0 53.1 13.9 15.6 17.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 77 23 100 11.1 11.6 11.4 1.0 62.0 59.5 8.8 10.4 12.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 77 23 100 16.5 16.6 14.6 0.6 58.7 57.1 14.5 15.9 17.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------