***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 17.03.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 04.04.2016.-10.04.2016. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 38 62 100 19.2 18.5 16.3 1.0 62.3 60.0 15.4 17.2 18.9 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 39 61 100 19.0 18.6 16.1 1.1 63.4 61.1 15.7 17.3 18.8 30 Becej 27400G00 0 78 22 100 18.4 18.9 16.6 1.0 62.0 59.8 15.9 17.7 19.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 76 24 100 11.3 11.5 14.0 0.7 58.5 57.2 8.4 10.5 12.4 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 78 22 100 19.0 19.5 14.9 1.0 61.6 59.5 16.3 18.2 20.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 78 22 100 17.7 18.4 13.1 1.2 62.9 60.4 14.9 16.9 18.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 79 21 100 17.7 18.4 16.1 1.1 63.7 61.2 15.6 17.1 18.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 77 23 100 6.2 6.6 13.6 1.1 61.4 59.4 3.7 5.5 7.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 78 22 100 18.5 19.1 15.3 1.1 61.9 59.7 15.9 17.8 19.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 77 23 100 18.7 19.2 14.3 1.1 61.9 59.7 16.0 17.9 19.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 78 22 100 18.7 19.4 14.8 1.1 62.4 60.1 16.0 18.0 19.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 77 23 100 17.8 18.4 14.4 1.1 61.7 59.6 15.1 17.0 18.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 42 58 100 19.9 19.5 13.8 1.3 63.6 61.1 15.9 17.9 19.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 40 60 100 19.4 18.9 15.5 1.2 63.5 61.3 15.9 17.6 19.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 77 23 100 18.5 18.3 14.4 0.4 54.8 54.3 16.2 17.8 19.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 80 20 100 19.0 19.8 14.4 1.2 63.1 60.6 16.4 18.3 20.1 30 Nis 06700G01 0 79 21 100 17.0 17.6 16.0 1.1 63.7 61.1 15.0 16.4 17.8 30 Palic 37000G16 0 78 22 100 18.1 18.7 14.1 1.2 62.1 59.8 15.5 17.4 19.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 38 62 100 19.0 18.5 16.4 1.1 63.5 61.2 15.6 17.3 18.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 79 21 100 12.6 13.1 11.4 1.1 61.4 59.1 10.1 11.9 13.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 78 22 100 18.5 19.0 16.0 1.0 61.3 59.2 16.0 17.8 19.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 39 61 100 18.8 18.4 16.0 1.1 63.7 61.3 15.7 17.2 18.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 38 62 100 19.3 18.9 16.6 1.2 64.0 61.6 15.9 17.5 19.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 79 21 100 18.2 18.8 15.4 1.2 62.5 60.2 15.7 17.5 19.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 39 61 100 19.5 18.8 14.7 0.9 60.9 59.0 15.9 17.7 19.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 79 21 100 17.8 18.4 13.4 1.1 62.0 60.0 15.2 17.1 18.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 39 61 100 19.5 19.0 15.7 1.1 63.2 60.6 15.9 17.6 19.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 78 22 100 18.9 19.0 14.2 0.7 57.7 56.6 16.3 18.2 20.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 78 22 100 12.8 13.3 13.2 1.2 61.8 59.5 10.3 12.1 13.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 37 63 100 19.1 18.5 16.2 1.1 63.1 60.7 15.6 17.3 18.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------