***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 17.03.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 11.04.2016.-17.04.2016. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 81 19 100 16.7 16.7 16.6 0.4 55.8 54.7 14.6 16.2 17.6 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 80 20 100 16.6 16.7 16.5 0.6 57.7 56.0 14.6 16.1 17.5 30 Becej 27400G00 0 81 19 100 16.7 16.8 16.9 0.6 57.0 55.3 14.7 16.2 17.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 81 19 100 9.6 9.4 14.4 0.3 53.4 53.1 7.8 9.1 10.5 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 81 19 100 17.2 17.1 15.0 0.4 54.4 53.4 15.2 16.7 18.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 80 20 100 16.3 15.9 12.9 0.1 51.2 50.8 14.4 15.8 17.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 80 20 100 16.6 16.6 16.4 0.5 57.2 55.6 14.6 16.0 17.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 80 20 100 4.9 4.8 13.5 0.4 54.7 53.3 3.0 4.4 5.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 81 19 100 16.7 16.6 15.4 0.5 55.6 54.2 14.7 16.2 17.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 80 20 100 16.6 16.6 14.2 0.5 55.1 53.7 14.7 16.1 17.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 81 19 100 17.0 16.8 14.7 0.3 53.5 52.5 15.1 16.5 17.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 81 19 100 16.1 15.9 14.3 0.3 53.6 52.4 14.2 15.6 16.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 81 19 100 17.2 16.9 13.5 0.2 52.1 51.4 15.3 16.7 18.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 81 19 100 16.4 16.7 15.4 0.8 58.5 56.3 14.4 15.9 17.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 76 24 100 17.1 16.8 15.1 0.1 52.1 52.2 15.5 16.7 17.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 81 19 100 17.4 17.1 14.2 0.2 52.4 51.7 15.5 16.9 18.3 30 Nis 06700G01 0 80 20 100 16.1 16.3 16.4 0.7 59.0 57.1 14.1 15.5 16.9 30 Palic 37000G16 0 80 20 100 16.1 16.1 13.9 0.6 56.2 54.4 14.1 15.6 17.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 80 20 100 16.4 16.6 16.7 0.6 58.2 56.3 14.4 15.9 17.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 79 21 100 11.2 11.2 11.2 0.5 55.5 54.0 9.2 10.7 12.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 80 20 100 16.8 16.8 16.3 0.5 56.4 54.9 14.8 16.3 17.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 79 21 100 16.5 16.9 16.5 0.8 60.0 57.8 14.5 16.0 17.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 80 20 100 16.6 16.8 16.8 0.7 58.9 56.7 14.5 16.0 17.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 79 21 100 16.4 16.5 15.4 0.6 57.2 55.3 14.4 15.9 17.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 81 19 100 16.8 16.8 15.1 0.4 55.1 54.3 15.0 16.4 17.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 81 19 100 16.4 16.2 13.4 0.2 52.8 52.0 14.7 16.0 17.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 80 20 100 16.7 16.7 15.9 0.4 55.6 54.5 14.8 16.2 17.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 79 21 100 17.0 16.7 14.6 0.2 52.2 52.1 15.4 16.6 17.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 79 21 100 10.9 10.9 13.0 0.6 56.2 54.6 8.8 10.3 11.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 81 19 100 16.5 16.6 16.5 0.5 56.9 55.4 14.4 16.0 17.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------