***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 17.03.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 21.03.2016.-17.04.2016. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 83 17 100 16.1 16.5 15.1 0.6 61.9 59.6 14.8 15.8 16.8 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 82 18 100 16.1 16.5 14.9 0.6 61.8 59.4 14.9 15.9 16.7 30 Becej 27400G00 0 82 18 100 16.5 16.7 15.3 0.5 60.4 58.3 15.2 16.2 17.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 85 15 100 8.8 9.0 12.5 0.4 56.8 55.7 7.4 8.5 9.6 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 84 16 100 16.8 17.1 13.6 0.5 59.5 57.9 15.4 16.5 17.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 83 17 100 15.6 16.1 11.7 0.8 62.9 60.8 14.2 15.3 16.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 84 16 100 15.9 16.3 14.8 0.6 62.5 60.0 14.8 15.7 16.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 84 16 100 4.4 4.8 12.0 0.7 61.8 59.6 3.1 4.1 5.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 84 16 100 16.4 16.7 14.2 0.5 59.5 57.8 15.1 16.1 17.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 84 16 100 16.4 16.7 12.9 0.6 60.3 58.3 15.1 16.1 17.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 84 16 100 16.6 16.9 13.6 0.6 59.7 58.0 15.2 16.3 17.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 85 15 100 15.7 16.1 12.9 0.6 61.3 59.3 14.3 15.4 16.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 82 18 100 16.7 17.2 12.9 0.7 63.0 60.7 15.3 16.4 17.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 82 18 100 16.5 16.7 14.1 0.5 60.0 58.0 15.2 16.2 17.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 84 16 100 16.3 16.2 13.8 0.2 54.1 53.5 15.1 16.0 16.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 83 17 100 17.0 17.4 13.2 0.6 61.0 59.1 15.6 16.7 17.7 30 Nis 06700G01 0 83 17 100 15.3 15.7 14.6 0.6 62.7 60.1 14.2 15.0 15.8 30 Palic 37000G16 0 83 17 100 16.0 16.3 12.4 0.6 60.9 58.7 14.7 15.7 16.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 82 18 100 16.1 16.4 15.0 0.6 61.7 59.3 14.9 15.8 16.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 83 17 100 10.8 11.4 10.0 0.9 64.8 61.8 9.4 10.5 11.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 84 16 100 16.5 16.8 14.9 0.5 59.7 57.8 15.2 16.2 17.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 81 19 100 16.1 16.4 14.8 0.6 62.8 60.2 14.9 15.8 16.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 82 18 100 16.4 16.7 15.2 0.6 61.9 59.5 15.2 16.1 17.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 83 17 100 16.3 16.6 14.0 0.5 59.9 58.0 15.1 16.0 17.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 85 15 100 16.3 16.6 13.7 0.6 61.1 59.1 15.1 16.0 16.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 84 16 100 16.0 16.6 12.1 0.8 64.9 62.4 14.6 15.7 16.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 83 17 100 16.4 16.8 14.5 0.7 63.3 60.8 15.1 16.1 17.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 84 16 100 16.5 16.5 13.0 0.3 55.8 54.9 15.2 16.2 17.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 83 17 100 10.8 11.3 11.7 0.7 62.8 60.2 9.5 10.5 11.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 82 18 100 16.1 16.4 15.0 0.6 61.7 59.3 14.8 15.8 16.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------