***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 17.03.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 21.03.2016.-27.03.2016. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 53 47 0 100 3.8 15.6 16.8 142.8 76.1 55.5 3.4 6.7 11.3 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 53 47 0 100 3.3 9.9 12.5 110.9 66.7 50.4 3.0 5.7 9.6 30 Becej 27400G00 51 49 0 100 4.0 19.5 18.1 154.0 78.6 59.0 3.4 7.1 12.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 33 67 100 12.7 17.0 21.1 159.4 79.9 63.2 3.3 6.4 10.8 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 32 68 100 12.7 15.6 20.1 148.8 77.6 62.5 2.8 5.9 10.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 35 65 100 13.1 15.9 20.1 144.2 76.7 64.1 3.4 6.6 11.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 58 42 0 100 2.9 9.3 11.8 109.7 66.1 48.6 2.9 5.5 9.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 34 66 100 21.5 26.6 23.0 152.3 78.7 65.4 7.7 12.5 19.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 32 68 100 12.3 17.6 21.2 166.4 81.7 64.4 3.0 5.9 10.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 37 63 100 14.5 18.9 23.7 149.9 77.9 63.1 3.3 6.9 12.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 34 66 100 13.8 17.9 20.6 149.7 78.0 62.8 2.6 5.9 11.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 29 71 100 14.4 20.5 20.9 167.8 82.4 67.9 3.6 6.9 11.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 29 71 100 14.8 19.7 22.7 162.0 81.0 65.9 3.9 7.4 12.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 38 62 100 21.5 28.4 23.7 154.7 79.1 61.5 6.7 12.0 19.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 31 69 100 13.2 22.9 19.9 196.4 85.6 65.1 2.5 5.7 10.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 35 65 100 12.5 16.8 20.9 155.2 79.4 64.2 3.2 6.3 10.7 30 Nis 06700G01 58 42 0 100 3.8 9.6 9.9 88.3 58.1 43.9 3.7 7.3 12.5 30 Palic 37000G16 0 34 66 100 13.0 17.1 25.6 156.7 79.8 65.7 3.8 6.9 11.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 76 24 100 9.7 14.1 14.3 121.2 69.9 53.3 3.3 6.8 12.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 32 68 100 15.6 18.8 26.2 146.8 77.2 66.3 3.8 7.6 13.0 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 35 65 100 12.3 17.2 20.0 163.5 80.9 61.7 3.2 6.2 10.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 53 47 0 100 4.0 10.2 11.8 96.8 61.3 46.3 3.7 7.1 11.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 78 22 100 10.3 17.6 16.9 138.5 75.0 57.5 4.0 7.7 13.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 35 65 100 17.7 24.9 23.0 162.7 81.0 63.4 4.8 9.1 15.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 51 49 0 100 3.5 13.8 19.1 138.4 74.8 57.4 3.2 6.1 10.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 23 77 100 12.1 16.7 21.3 173.2 82.5 71.2 2.7 5.4 9.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 54 46 0 100 3.1 12.0 16.8 131.5 73.0 54.6 2.8 5.6 9.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 33 67 100 10.7 16.2 20.5 174.1 82.3 63.9 2.1 4.6 8.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 34 66 100 22.1 27.6 25.7 150.9 78.5 66.1 7.2 12.5 19.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 54 46 0 100 3.0 10.5 14.0 123.9 70.8 53.3 2.7 5.3 9.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------