***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 17.03.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 28.03.2016.-03.04.2016. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 64 36 0 100 2.4 5.0 9.9 77.6 50.4 40.2 2.5 5.0 8.3 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 60 40 0 100 2.4 5.2 10.0 83.6 53.6 41.5 2.5 4.6 7.6 30 Becej 27400G00 71 29 0 100 2.5 5.6 10.0 78.0 49.4 39.1 3.0 5.8 9.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 60 40 0 100 4.5 8.8 11.2 78.6 50.9 40.7 4.7 8.6 13.8 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 62 38 0 100 3.1 5.5 10.4 74.8 47.3 39.0 3.2 6.0 9.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 65 35 0 100 2.7 4.6 11.8 75.7 43.9 37.7 3.0 5.7 9.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 62 38 0 100 1.5 3.8 9.9 82.8 53.8 41.3 1.5 3.3 5.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 64 36 0 100 4.8 9.4 11.8 81.7 49.2 39.1 5.3 9.6 15.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 68 32 0 100 2.3 4.3 10.4 71.7 44.2 36.0 2.7 5.3 8.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 66 34 0 100 2.7 6.0 11.8 80.9 49.5 38.7 2.9 6.1 10.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 63 37 0 100 2.9 5.2 10.8 75.9 45.4 37.4 3.0 6.1 10.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 65 35 0 100 2.7 4.9 10.6 76.9 44.9 36.5 3.0 5.9 10.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 66 34 0 100 3.0 5.3 11.0 73.3 43.4 35.6 3.3 6.6 11.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 69 31 0 100 2.6 5.1 12.9 75.4 46.0 36.7 3.0 5.9 10.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 59 41 0 100 3.3 8.6 11.1 83.9 54.4 42.0 3.0 7.0 13.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 66 34 0 100 2.9 5.0 10.8 74.9 43.8 36.6 3.4 6.1 10.0 30 Nis 06700G01 64 36 0 100 1.6 4.0 10.1 85.5 55.8 41.9 1.7 3.3 5.5 30 Palic 37000G16 69 31 0 100 1.9 4.5 13.1 83.1 50.2 38.7 2.3 4.5 7.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 60 40 0 100 1.8 4.2 10.2 83.0 53.4 41.6 1.7 3.8 6.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 62 38 0 100 3.1 5.8 14.0 81.0 49.0 39.8 3.3 6.0 9.7 29 Sjenica 27900G10 64 36 0 100 2.4 4.9 9.9 73.3 47.9 38.5 2.6 5.2 9.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 61 39 0 100 2.4 5.4 10.3 82.0 55.0 42.0 2.6 4.6 7.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 65 35 0 100 2.5 5.3 10.7 81.1 52.4 40.9 2.7 5.0 8.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 71 29 0 100 2.1 5.0 12.3 81.2 49.2 38.3 2.6 5.2 8.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 62 38 0 100 4.0 7.5 11.1 78.2 50.9 41.2 4.3 7.3 11.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 68 32 0 100 2.4 4.2 10.8 72.2 43.1 35.7 2.8 5.5 9.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 61 39 0 100 2.5 5.4 10.8 79.3 51.2 40.8 2.6 5.2 9.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 60 40 0 100 3.4 7.4 11.2 83.6 53.0 41.6 3.5 6.6 11.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 66 34 0 100 3.3 8.0 14.2 85.5 51.4 40.4 3.6 7.6 13.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 62 38 0 100 2.2 5.0 9.9 81.8 52.8 41.0 2.2 4.6 7.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------