***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 17.03.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 04.04.2016.-10.04.2016. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 53 47 0 100 3.9 10.3 14.3 109.5 65.5 51.9 3.7 6.6 10.5 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 56 44 0 100 3.9 11.2 14.1 114.8 67.9 54.0 3.9 6.8 10.6 30 Becej 27400G00 0 32 68 100 13.5 12.8 15.3 120.5 69.7 55.9 4.3 7.4 11.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 53 47 0 100 6.0 13.0 14.5 98.3 61.9 50.9 5.9 9.6 14.4 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 55 45 0 100 4.8 12.8 14.3 101.7 63.2 51.8 4.7 8.5 14.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 75 25 100 9.0 8.4 14.4 89.8 56.8 49.1 4.0 7.0 10.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 54 46 0 100 2.9 9.4 13.5 113.9 67.4 53.9 2.6 5.3 9.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 51 49 0 100 6.8 17.1 15.5 104.7 63.7 51.7 6.2 11.2 18.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 51 49 0 100 4.0 10.5 15.3 105.4 64.3 52.6 3.6 6.7 11.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 75 25 100 11.9 14.1 16.9 107.5 65.0 53.0 4.9 8.9 14.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 58 42 0 100 4.0 10.4 13.3 100.7 62.5 50.7 4.1 7.2 11.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 52 48 0 100 3.3 9.4 13.3 101.5 62.6 50.6 2.8 5.9 10.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 53 47 0 100 4.2 8.7 14.1 94.0 57.9 48.2 4.0 6.9 11.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 51 49 0 100 5.6 14.2 18.6 114.8 67.8 54.9 5.3 8.9 13.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 77 23 100 6.2 6.9 12.7 95.3 62.1 51.1 2.6 4.8 7.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 53 47 0 100 4.0 8.6 13.1 94.5 59.4 48.9 3.9 6.6 10.3 30 Nis 06700G01 51 49 0 100 3.4 9.0 13.2 108.4 66.0 53.0 3.1 5.6 9.0 30 Palic 37000G16 53 47 0 100 4.7 12.1 18.8 111.4 66.4 54.6 4.5 7.7 11.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 52 48 0 100 4.9 13.2 14.6 117.1 68.7 55.0 4.6 8.0 12.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 53 47 0 100 3.9 10.7 18.4 103.1 62.7 51.0 3.6 7.0 11.9 30 Sjenica 27900G10 59 41 0 100 3.5 10.2 14.5 107.9 65.2 52.2 3.4 6.4 10.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 76 24 100 8.7 10.4 14.1 108.0 66.0 52.6 4.1 6.9 10.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 75 25 100 9.1 12.3 15.5 123.5 70.8 56.6 4.2 7.1 10.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 52 48 0 100 5.1 12.4 18.0 118.2 69.0 56.0 5.0 7.9 11.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 75 25 100 9.7 10.9 15.5 105.0 63.7 51.6 4.4 7.6 11.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 76 24 100 8.1 9.0 14.4 103.0 62.4 51.7 3.2 6.0 10.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 51 49 0 100 3.9 9.5 15.0 109.0 65.2 52.2 3.6 6.2 9.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 76 24 100 8.3 8.6 13.0 92.3 60.1 49.8 3.7 6.4 10.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 52 48 0 100 7.6 16.7 18.5 107.6 64.8 53.3 7.4 11.7 17.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 55 45 0 100 3.4 9.7 14.3 116.6 68.3 54.2 3.4 5.8 9.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------