***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 17.03.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 11.04.2016.-17.04.2016. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 76 24 100 15.2 15.7 12.4 94.3 60.1 46.4 7.0 12.0 18.3 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 56 44 0 100 5.8 10.1 9.5 73.3 51.6 40.8 5.8 9.6 14.5 30 Becej 27400G00 53 47 0 100 8.4 15.2 11.0 82.3 55.4 43.9 8.3 13.3 19.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 51 49 0 100 12.1 22.7 13.2 91.5 59.6 49.0 11.7 18.3 26.5 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 76 24 100 18.3 17.8 12.4 87.8 57.5 47.0 9.7 15.1 21.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 79 21 100 15.5 17.2 15.6 101.5 62.2 54.0 8.0 12.8 18.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 59 41 0 100 5.5 11.0 10.1 79.3 53.6 41.2 5.7 9.8 15.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 76 24 100 27.3 23.9 13.3 77.9 51.8 45.0 15.6 22.9 31.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 76 24 100 16.1 14.6 12.6 83.4 55.2 45.6 7.6 12.7 19.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 51 49 0 100 9.5 15.7 14.1 80.9 52.7 45.1 9.3 14.7 21.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 52 48 0 100 8.4 15.5 11.6 83.4 55.7 46.2 8.0 13.3 20.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 77 23 100 17.0 15.6 11.8 81.6 54.6 46.7 8.8 14.0 20.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 77 23 100 18.1 18.5 14.7 94.2 59.4 50.4 9.1 14.7 21.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 56 44 0 100 11.0 17.2 13.8 72.9 50.1 40.5 11.2 17.0 24.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 53 47 0 100 7.6 16.5 11.9 88.1 60.3 48.7 7.3 12.6 19.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 76 24 100 17.9 18.0 13.0 91.8 59.0 49.3 8.8 14.3 21.4 30 Nis 06700G01 61 39 0 100 5.3 9.9 9.5 74.9 51.2 38.8 5.6 9.6 14.6 30 Palic 37000G16 53 47 0 100 8.9 13.7 15.1 77.6 49.4 42.5 8.8 13.9 20.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 58 42 0 100 6.0 10.8 9.6 72.6 51.4 40.6 6.1 10.4 16.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 53 47 0 100 7.6 12.2 15.9 77.7 50.1 43.8 7.4 12.2 18.3 30 Sjenica 27900G10 53 47 0 100 8.0 14.9 11.8 86.0 56.8 46.0 7.8 12.6 18.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 58 42 0 100 5.1 10.5 10.1 75.4 52.8 40.1 5.1 9.5 15.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 60 40 0 100 7.6 12.8 10.4 73.5 51.8 40.3 8.1 12.3 17.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 55 45 0 100 9.0 14.9 12.9 75.0 50.1 41.3 8.9 14.9 22.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 52 48 0 100 8.6 18.1 13.5 91.5 59.1 47.4 8.2 14.0 21.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 80 20 100 16.1 16.8 14.0 92.0 59.2 49.7 9.0 13.7 19.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 52 48 0 100 8.6 18.4 13.4 93.9 60.1 46.8 8.2 14.0 21.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 52 48 0 100 7.8 16.8 13.0 93.2 60.7 49.9 7.5 12.6 19.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 55 45 0 100 12.2 18.2 14.9 74.8 48.0 41.6 12.3 19.2 28.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 56 44 0 100 5.4 9.9 10.0 76.8 53.2 42.2 5.5 9.1 13.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------