***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 17.03.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 21.03.2016.-17.04.2016. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 81 19 100 45.2 48.0 53.5 105.3 60.8 54.8 31.9 41.3 51.6 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 52 48 0 100 22.8 34.8 46.1 95.1 53.0 47.7 22.9 32.8 44.8 30 Becej 27400G00 0 78 22 100 50.3 54.0 54.4 107.4 62.3 55.5 34.7 45.2 56.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 76 24 100 62.0 63.9 60.0 105.9 61.1 54.7 47.9 57.4 67.3 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 77 23 100 53.4 53.8 57.2 102.8 58.5 52.8 39.8 49.0 58.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 81 19 100 46.3 46.6 61.9 101.5 56.8 52.5 32.0 42.1 53.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 54 46 0 100 21.0 33.7 45.3 95.8 53.8 48.7 21.3 31.3 42.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 77 23 100 79.2 79.7 63.7 103.0 58.2 52.5 58.2 72.3 87.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 76 24 100 48.2 49.1 59.4 104.7 60.0 53.3 35.3 43.9 52.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 76 24 100 57.5 58.5 66.5 104.2 59.4 52.9 41.7 52.0 63.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 76 24 100 52.1 51.5 56.3 101.8 57.3 51.9 35.9 46.4 58.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 77 23 100 51.1 52.5 56.7 104.9 59.9 54.0 36.2 46.1 57.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 81 19 100 52.0 54.5 62.5 104.8 60.0 54.2 36.8 47.5 59.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 55 45 0 100 43.4 62.7 69.1 102.1 57.9 51.0 44.7 56.8 69.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 79 21 100 50.5 55.5 55.5 110.6 64.4 56.6 37.2 46.3 56.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 78 22 100 49.2 49.9 57.8 103.3 58.7 53.0 33.9 44.2 55.6 30 Nis 06700G01 55 45 0 100 22.9 32.5 42.7 89.1 49.0 44.0 23.6 33.1 44.6 30 Palic 37000G16 51 49 0 100 33.2 49.7 72.5 105.9 60.9 53.5 33.4 42.9 53.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 52 48 0 100 27.4 42.2 48.7 97.8 55.0 49.1 27.6 38.6 51.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 76 24 100 51.1 49.7 74.5 101.0 55.9 51.1 36.2 46.0 56.7 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 79 21 100 45.9 48.8 56.2 106.2 61.3 54.9 32.1 41.5 52.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 57 43 0 100 23.2 35.5 46.3 90.4 50.1 44.1 24.3 35.2 48.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 54 46 0 100 31.6 47.2 53.4 102.7 58.8 51.7 32.6 41.8 52.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 52 48 0 100 37.2 57.8 66.2 107.2 62.0 53.9 37.8 48.9 61.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 78 22 100 52.0 53.0 59.2 102.9 59.1 53.7 38.0 47.5 57.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 79 21 100 45.5 48.4 60.4 107.1 62.0 55.7 32.4 41.4 51.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 80 20 100 46.9 48.3 56.0 102.9 59.0 53.6 32.4 42.4 53.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 77 23 100 48.0 50.7 57.7 108.1 62.5 55.5 35.1 43.9 52.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 51 49 0 100 53.4 73.8 73.3 103.6 58.5 52.5 53.9 66.8 80.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 77 23 100 36.5 35.1 48.2 99.0 56.1 50.8 21.6 31.2 42.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------