***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 18.03.2021. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 22.03.2021.-28.03.2021. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 92 8 0 100 0.5 0.8 0.4 -2.7 21.0 22.0 2.0 3.5 4.8 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 80 20 0 100 0.8 1.0 0.5 -2.3 23.8 24.8 1.8 3.1 4.3 30 Becej 27400G00 85 15 0 100 3.1 3.2 0.6 -2.7 20.7 21.8 4.2 5.5 6.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 96 4 0 100 -3.5 -3.8 -2.6 -3.4 14.8 16.4 -1.9 -0.5 0.8 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 93 7 0 100 -0.8 -1.1 -1.7 -3.4 15.4 17.4 0.9 2.5 4.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 96 4 0 100 -1.6 -2.5 -4.8 -4.0 10.7 13.1 0.1 1.5 2.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 82 18 0 100 0.9 1.2 0.4 -2.4 23.6 24.6 2.0 3.2 4.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 97 3 0 100 -7.4 -8.6 -4.9 -4.2 9.8 12.7 -5.4 -3.8 -2.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 87 13 0 100 0.6 0.2 -1.4 -3.1 16.1 18.9 2.0 3.4 4.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 92 8 0 100 0.7 0.1 -3.7 -3.7 12.8 15.7 2.1 3.4 4.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 94 6 0 100 0.4 -0.4 -2.4 -3.8 11.7 15.0 1.9 3.2 4.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 97 3 0 100 -1.4 -2.8 -4.2 -4.6 7.9 11.0 0.4 1.8 3.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 95 5 0 100 -0.3 -1.3 -3.5 -4.0 10.8 13.4 1.3 2.7 4.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 91 9 0 100 1.3 0.8 -2.1 -3.7 13.6 16.3 2.5 3.7 4.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 94 6 0 100 0.8 0.6 -0.6 -2.9 16.1 18.2 2.1 3.3 4.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 95 5 0 100 0.7 -0.3 -3.2 -4.0 10.9 13.4 2.3 3.7 5.0 30 Nis 06700G01 72 28 0 100 1.6 1.8 0.4 -2.1 25.9 26.9 2.3 3.3 4.3 30 Palic 37000G16 94 6 0 100 -1.3 -1.8 -4.4 -3.9 13.0 15.7 0.1 1.3 2.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 83 17 0 100 0.8 1.0 0.5 -2.4 22.7 23.8 1.9 3.2 4.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 95 5 0 100 -4.7 -5.2 -6.0 -3.8 13.6 15.7 -3.0 -1.5 -0.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 89 11 0 100 0.4 0.5 0.1 -2.8 19.9 21.4 1.8 3.2 4.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 79 21 0 100 0.7 0.9 0.6 -2.2 24.1 25.0 1.6 2.8 3.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 89 11 0 100 0.2 0.4 0.2 -2.6 20.2 21.6 1.5 2.8 4.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 89 11 0 100 0.7 0.4 -1.8 -3.3 16.5 18.9 1.9 3.1 4.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 93 7 0 100 0.1 0.1 -0.6 -3.1 18.1 19.1 1.7 3.2 4.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 95 5 0 100 -0.2 -1.4 -4.6 -4.3 8.7 11.2 1.3 2.6 3.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 93 7 0 100 0.1 0.4 -0.1 -2.9 19.9 20.8 1.9 3.6 5.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 95 5 0 100 -1.1 -1.4 -2.1 -3.4 14.6 16.6 0.5 1.9 3.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 95 5 0 100 -2.9 -3.7 -5.7 -4.2 11.7 14.6 -1.2 0.3 1.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 83 17 0 100 1.1 1.3 0.5 -2.5 22.4 23.4 2.3 3.6 4.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------