***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 18.03.2021. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 12.04.2021.-18.04.2021. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 54 46 0 100 4.5 6.1 6.8 0.0 49.6 50.2 4.8 6.1 7.4 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 53 47 0 100 4.0 5.3 6.4 -0.2 46.9 48.3 4.3 5.5 6.6 30 Becej 27400G00 55 45 0 100 5.9 7.4 6.8 0.0 49.7 50.0 6.2 7.4 8.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 53 47 0 100 0.3 1.9 4.3 0.1 51.8 51.0 0.5 1.8 2.9 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 55 45 0 100 3.3 4.9 4.5 0.0 50.5 50.5 3.6 4.9 6.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 60 40 0 100 2.6 4.2 2.6 0.2 53.4 52.9 3.0 4.0 5.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 54 46 0 100 4.2 5.5 6.4 -0.2 46.8 48.2 4.5 5.7 6.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 54 46 0 100 -3.6 -2.0 2.4 0.0 49.6 51.2 -3.3 -2.0 -0.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 57 43 0 100 4.0 5.5 4.7 0.0 50.5 50.7 4.3 5.5 6.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 55 45 0 100 4.1 5.5 3.2 0.0 49.7 50.8 4.4 5.5 6.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 55 45 0 100 4.0 5.5 3.9 0.0 50.8 51.2 4.3 5.4 6.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 53 47 0 100 2.7 4.1 3.2 0.1 51.0 51.8 3.0 4.1 5.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 55 45 0 100 3.6 5.2 2.8 0.2 52.7 52.4 3.9 5.0 6.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 53 47 0 100 4.6 5.7 4.6 -0.1 48.6 49.3 4.8 5.8 6.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 53 47 0 100 5.1 6.3 5.3 0.0 50.9 50.5 5.3 6.3 7.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 56 44 0 100 4.3 5.9 3.4 0.1 52.4 52.2 4.6 5.8 6.8 30 Nis 06700G01 51 49 0 100 4.6 5.6 6.2 -0.3 45.6 47.4 4.7 5.8 6.9 30 Palic 37000G16 55 45 0 100 2.5 3.6 2.4 -0.1 48.9 50.3 2.7 3.7 4.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 52 48 0 100 4.1 5.4 6.4 -0.1 47.9 48.9 4.3 5.5 6.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 54 46 0 100 -0.4 0.9 0.4 -0.1 48.4 50.8 -0.1 1.0 2.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 56 44 0 100 4.0 5.6 6.0 0.0 50.0 50.1 4.4 5.6 6.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 76 24 100 5.6 5.0 6.1 -0.2 47.0 48.4 4.1 5.1 6.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 75 25 100 5.8 5.2 6.3 -0.1 48.8 49.5 4.1 5.2 6.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 52 48 0 100 4.1 5.2 4.3 0.0 49.3 49.9 4.2 5.3 6.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 55 45 0 100 4.2 5.8 5.5 0.0 50.4 50.4 4.5 5.7 6.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 76 24 100 5.3 4.9 2.5 0.1 51.5 52.1 3.7 4.8 5.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 53 47 0 100 4.4 6.1 6.2 0.0 49.7 50.1 4.7 6.1 7.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 54 46 0 100 3.4 4.8 4.5 0.1 51.2 50.8 3.6 4.7 5.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 55 45 0 100 0.5 1.8 1.8 -0.2 47.3 49.4 0.8 2.0 3.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 55 45 0 100 4.4 5.7 6.6 -0.1 47.9 48.9 4.7 5.8 7.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------