***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 18.03.2021. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 22.03.2021.-18.04.2021. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 55 45 0 100 4.0 4.3 4.4 -0.7 35.3 38.0 4.2 5.0 5.7 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 53 47 0 100 3.8 4.1 4.2 -0.6 36.7 39.2 3.9 4.7 5.4 30 Becej 27400G00 53 47 0 100 6.0 6.2 4.4 -0.7 34.0 36.7 6.2 6.9 7.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 56 44 0 100 -0.1 0.0 1.6 -0.9 30.1 33.8 0.2 1.0 1.8 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 62 38 0 100 2.8 2.8 2.0 -1.0 28.3 32.2 3.1 3.8 4.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 66 34 0 100 1.8 1.7 -0.6 -1.3 22.6 27.6 2.2 2.9 3.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 56 44 0 100 3.9 4.3 4.1 -0.6 36.4 39.0 4.1 4.8 5.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 72 28 0 100 -3.9 -4.1 -0.6 -1.3 21.2 26.4 -3.4 -2.5 -1.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 58 42 0 100 3.8 3.9 2.3 -0.9 29.1 32.8 4.0 4.7 5.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 67 33 0 100 3.7 3.7 0.4 -1.2 24.2 28.7 4.1 4.7 5.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 69 31 0 100 3.5 3.4 1.3 -1.2 23.0 27.8 3.8 4.5 5.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 74 26 0 100 1.8 1.7 0.3 -1.3 20.6 25.9 2.3 3.1 3.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 73 27 0 100 2.9 2.8 0.1 -1.3 22.0 26.9 3.3 4.0 4.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 58 42 0 100 4.4 4.4 2.1 -0.9 28.3 32.0 4.6 5.1 5.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 63 37 0 100 4.2 4.3 2.8 -0.9 28.5 32.2 4.5 5.1 5.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 70 30 0 100 3.9 3.8 0.7 -1.2 22.9 27.5 4.3 5.0 5.7 30 Nis 06700G01 53 47 0 100 4.2 4.5 4.1 -0.5 39.0 41.1 4.3 4.9 5.5 30 Palic 37000G16 64 36 0 100 1.7 1.7 -0.2 -1.1 25.9 30.3 2.0 2.5 3.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 51 49 0 100 3.8 4.1 4.2 -0.6 36.1 38.7 4.0 4.7 5.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 68 32 0 100 -1.1 -1.0 -2.1 -1.1 27.3 31.9 -0.7 -0.1 0.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 58 42 0 100 3.6 3.9 3.6 -0.7 32.5 35.5 3.9 4.6 5.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 75 25 100 4.5 3.8 4.0 -0.5 38.0 40.5 3.6 4.3 4.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 76 24 100 4.6 3.7 4.0 -0.6 34.7 37.7 3.6 4.3 5.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 58 42 0 100 3.7 3.7 2.0 -0.9 29.5 33.1 3.9 4.5 5.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 56 44 0 100 3.8 4.0 3.2 -0.8 33.2 36.2 4.0 4.7 5.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 72 28 0 100 2.7 2.6 -0.3 -1.3 21.2 25.8 3.1 3.8 4.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 55 45 0 100 4.2 4.4 3.8 -0.7 34.2 37.2 4.4 5.2 6.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 63 37 0 100 2.4 2.4 1.8 -1.0 27.1 31.1 2.7 3.3 3.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 67 33 0 100 0.4 0.3 -1.0 -1.2 24.5 29.0 0.8 1.6 2.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 54 46 0 100 4.2 4.5 4.3 -0.6 35.7 38.3 4.3 5.1 5.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------