***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 18.03.2021. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 29.03.2021.-04.04.2021. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 38 62 100 17.9 17.6 15.0 1.2 65.1 61.9 14.8 16.3 17.7 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 35 65 100 18.0 17.9 15.2 1.4 67.4 63.9 15.2 16.5 17.7 30 Becej 27400G00 0 33 67 100 18.3 18.0 15.5 1.4 66.2 63.0 15.3 16.7 18.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 81 19 100 9.0 9.3 11.7 0.8 58.8 57.0 6.7 8.4 10.0 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 78 22 100 17.3 17.8 13.4 1.1 62.3 59.9 15.0 16.6 18.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 76 24 100 16.0 15.9 10.8 0.5 55.8 54.8 13.7 15.3 16.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 37 63 100 17.7 17.5 15.1 1.3 66.9 63.4 15.1 16.3 17.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 79 21 100 4.8 5.0 11.5 0.8 58.6 57.2 2.8 4.2 5.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 38 62 100 18.0 17.6 14.3 1.3 64.6 61.7 14.8 16.3 17.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 77 23 100 17.0 17.3 12.5 1.0 61.0 59.0 14.7 16.3 17.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 79 21 100 17.0 17.5 13.6 1.0 61.3 59.2 14.8 16.4 18.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 80 20 100 16.1 16.5 12.6 0.9 60.2 58.3 13.8 15.5 17.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 79 21 100 17.1 17.5 12.8 1.0 61.0 59.1 14.9 16.5 18.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 28 72 100 18.7 18.5 14.8 1.8 69.6 65.9 15.3 16.8 18.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 80 20 100 16.3 16.3 13.3 0.5 55.8 54.8 14.3 15.8 17.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 79 21 100 17.4 17.8 12.9 0.9 60.4 58.4 15.2 16.8 18.4 30 Nis 06700G01 0 35 65 100 17.0 17.0 15.1 1.5 69.2 65.0 14.6 15.7 16.8 30 Palic 37000G16 0 35 65 100 17.9 17.4 12.3 1.4 64.7 61.9 14.5 16.1 17.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 33 67 100 18.0 17.8 15.4 1.4 67.5 64.1 15.1 16.4 17.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 76 24 100 11.4 11.9 9.6 1.1 62.6 60.1 9.2 10.8 12.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 36 64 100 18.2 17.9 15.1 1.3 65.4 62.3 15.0 16.5 17.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 29 71 100 18.1 18.1 15.3 1.7 70.4 66.2 15.2 16.5 17.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 32 68 100 18.5 18.3 15.5 1.5 67.5 64.2 15.3 16.8 18.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 30 70 100 18.4 18.2 14.5 1.6 68.0 64.5 15.1 16.6 18.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 38 62 100 17.7 17.4 13.7 1.2 64.2 61.1 14.8 16.2 17.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 77 23 100 16.4 16.6 11.5 0.8 59.2 57.8 14.2 15.8 17.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 37 63 100 18.1 17.8 14.5 1.2 65.3 62.1 15.2 16.6 17.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 80 20 100 16.5 16.4 12.2 0.5 55.8 54.8 14.2 15.9 17.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 33 67 100 12.7 12.2 11.6 1.4 64.9 62.0 9.2 10.8 12.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 36 64 100 17.9 17.7 15.2 1.3 66.4 63.1 15.1 16.4 17.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------