***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 18.03.2021. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 05.04.2021.-11.04.2021. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 81 19 100 17.4 17.2 15.0 0.3 53.4 52.4 15.1 16.8 18.4 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 81 19 100 17.5 17.4 14.8 0.3 54.3 53.3 15.4 17.0 18.4 30 Becej 27400G00 0 80 20 100 17.9 17.6 15.3 0.3 53.1 52.4 15.7 17.3 18.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 79 21 100 11.0 10.3 12.6 0.0 50.3 49.6 8.2 10.3 12.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 79 21 100 18.5 18.1 13.5 0.2 52.2 51.4 16.0 17.9 19.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 77 23 100 17.6 17.0 11.4 0.2 51.7 50.9 14.8 16.8 18.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 81 19 100 17.3 17.2 14.8 0.3 54.1 53.0 15.3 16.8 18.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 79 21 100 6.0 5.7 12.2 0.4 53.9 53.1 3.6 5.3 7.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 78 22 100 18.2 17.8 13.9 0.3 53.4 52.5 15.7 17.5 19.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 79 21 100 18.3 18.0 12.9 0.4 54.0 53.2 15.8 17.6 19.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 80 20 100 18.4 17.9 13.4 0.2 51.9 51.3 15.8 17.7 19.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 79 21 100 17.6 17.1 13.0 0.2 52.3 51.7 15.0 16.9 18.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 78 22 100 18.6 18.1 12.2 0.2 52.5 51.7 15.9 17.8 19.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 80 20 100 17.8 17.7 14.1 0.5 55.4 54.6 15.6 17.2 18.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 75 25 100 18.4 17.3 13.0 -0.3 46.7 46.9 16.0 17.7 19.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 79 21 100 18.8 18.3 12.8 0.1 51.6 51.0 16.2 18.1 19.9 30 Nis 06700G01 0 81 19 100 16.6 16.5 14.7 0.4 54.5 53.4 14.7 16.1 17.5 30 Palic 37000G16 0 80 20 100 17.7 17.7 12.8 0.6 56.0 54.8 15.3 17.1 18.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 80 20 100 17.4 17.3 15.1 0.4 54.3 53.4 15.3 16.9 18.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 78 22 100 12.5 12.7 10.3 0.8 58.8 56.8 10.1 11.8 13.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 79 21 100 18.1 17.8 14.7 0.3 53.5 52.4 15.8 17.5 19.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 80 20 100 17.4 17.3 14.8 0.4 55.1 53.9 15.4 16.9 18.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 80 20 100 17.7 17.5 15.2 0.4 54.2 53.3 15.6 17.2 18.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 80 20 100 17.7 17.6 14.0 0.4 54.6 53.8 15.5 17.1 18.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 80 20 100 17.9 17.6 13.4 0.3 53.1 51.9 15.7 17.4 18.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 78 22 100 17.8 17.2 12.0 0.1 51.4 50.7 15.2 17.1 18.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 81 19 100 17.8 17.7 14.3 0.3 54.1 52.8 15.6 17.3 18.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 77 23 100 18.8 17.9 12.7 -0.1 48.7 48.5 16.2 18.0 19.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 79 21 100 12.5 12.6 11.9 0.7 56.8 55.5 10.1 11.9 13.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 81 19 100 17.4 17.2 14.9 0.3 53.7 52.8 15.4 16.9 18.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------