***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 18.03.2021. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 12.04.2021.-18.04.2021. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 53 47 0 100 14.6 15.9 15.8 -0.5 43.9 45.8 14.9 16.5 17.9 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 55 45 0 100 14.5 15.9 15.7 -0.3 45.7 46.8 14.8 16.3 17.6 30 Becej 27400G00 53 47 0 100 14.6 15.8 16.0 -0.6 43.1 45.2 14.9 16.4 17.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 59 41 0 100 7.3 8.5 13.4 -0.7 41.3 43.9 7.7 9.2 10.6 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 60 40 0 100 14.7 16.0 14.1 -0.7 41.5 44.1 15.3 16.8 18.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 61 39 0 100 13.5 15.1 12.2 -0.5 45.0 46.0 14.1 15.6 17.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 54 46 0 100 14.4 15.8 15.7 -0.3 45.7 46.8 14.7 16.2 17.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 58 42 0 100 2.4 3.7 12.7 -0.7 42.5 44.6 2.9 4.3 5.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 57 43 0 100 14.3 15.5 14.4 -0.7 41.6 44.1 14.7 16.2 17.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 57 43 0 100 14.3 15.6 13.4 -0.7 42.2 44.5 14.8 16.2 17.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 63 37 0 100 14.4 15.8 14.0 -0.8 41.3 43.8 15.0 16.5 17.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 59 41 0 100 13.6 14.9 13.6 -0.7 41.8 44.0 14.1 15.6 16.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 62 38 0 100 14.5 16.1 13.0 -0.5 44.1 45.6 15.1 16.6 18.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 54 46 0 100 14.3 15.5 14.6 -0.5 43.9 46.0 14.6 16.0 17.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 59 41 0 100 15.1 16.0 14.0 -0.8 39.0 42.0 15.5 16.8 17.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 62 38 0 100 14.8 16.2 13.5 -0.6 42.7 44.7 15.3 16.8 18.2 30 Nis 06700G01 56 44 0 100 14.0 15.5 15.7 -0.2 47.1 47.7 14.3 15.7 17.0 30 Palic 37000G16 55 45 0 100 13.8 15.2 13.2 -0.6 43.8 45.6 14.2 15.7 17.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 55 45 0 100 14.3 15.6 15.9 -0.4 45.2 46.7 14.6 16.0 17.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 51 49 0 100 8.9 10.3 10.6 -0.4 45.9 47.0 9.1 10.6 12.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 57 43 0 100 14.5 15.8 15.3 -0.6 42.3 44.7 14.9 16.4 17.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 54 46 0 100 14.4 15.9 15.7 -0.3 46.7 47.6 14.7 16.1 17.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 53 47 0 100 14.5 15.7 16.0 -0.5 44.4 46.3 14.8 16.2 17.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 55 45 0 100 14.2 15.4 14.5 -0.6 43.0 45.2 14.5 16.0 17.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 54 46 0 100 14.8 16.0 14.2 -0.5 43.4 45.5 15.1 16.5 17.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 56 44 0 100 14.1 15.4 12.8 -0.5 44.6 45.8 14.5 15.8 17.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 54 46 0 100 14.6 15.9 15.1 -0.4 44.7 46.4 14.9 16.4 17.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 62 38 0 100 14.8 15.9 13.6 -0.8 40.4 43.1 15.3 16.6 17.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 54 46 0 100 8.5 9.9 12.3 -0.5 44.5 46.1 8.8 10.3 11.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 53 47 0 100 14.4 15.7 15.7 -0.4 44.7 46.2 14.7 16.1 17.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------