***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 18.03.2021. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 22.03.2021.-18.04.2021. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 75 25 100 16.5 15.7 14.0 -0.3 44.5 45.9 15.0 16.0 17.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 77 23 100 16.4 15.9 14.1 -0.1 48.0 48.7 15.1 16.0 16.9 30 Becej 27400G00 0 76 24 100 16.7 15.9 14.1 -0.4 42.8 44.9 15.4 16.3 17.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 54 46 0 100 7.4 7.7 10.8 -0.9 33.6 37.7 7.6 8.7 9.8 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 75 25 100 17.1 15.7 12.0 -0.9 35.1 39.2 15.5 16.6 17.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 57 43 0 100 14.0 14.1 9.5 -1.3 29.4 34.7 14.3 15.4 16.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 77 23 100 16.2 15.7 14.0 -0.1 47.8 48.5 15.0 15.8 16.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 55 45 0 100 3.0 3.1 10.1 -1.2 31.1 36.5 3.2 4.2 5.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 76 24 100 16.7 15.5 12.7 -0.7 37.5 41.2 15.3 16.3 17.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 54 46 0 100 15.0 15.3 11.0 -1.0 33.4 38.2 15.3 16.3 17.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 53 47 0 100 15.1 15.3 11.9 -1.1 32.3 37.3 15.3 16.4 17.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 54 46 0 100 14.2 14.3 11.1 -1.2 31.0 36.2 14.4 15.5 16.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 53 47 0 100 15.2 15.3 10.9 -1.2 31.3 36.2 15.4 16.5 17.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 76 24 100 16.7 15.9 13.0 -0.4 43.3 46.0 15.3 16.3 17.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 58 42 0 100 15.0 15.3 12.2 -0.9 33.7 37.6 15.3 16.2 17.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 53 47 0 100 15.5 15.6 11.3 -1.1 31.8 36.7 15.7 16.8 17.8 30 Nis 06700G01 0 79 21 100 15.5 15.2 13.9 0.0 50.8 51.0 14.4 15.2 16.0 30 Palic 37000G16 0 75 25 100 16.3 15.1 10.7 -0.8 36.8 41.2 14.8 15.8 16.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 77 23 100 16.3 15.8 14.2 -0.2 47.1 48.2 15.0 15.9 16.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 75 25 100 11.1 9.8 8.2 -0.8 37.1 41.6 9.5 10.6 11.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 76 24 100 16.8 15.8 13.6 -0.5 40.6 43.4 15.4 16.4 17.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 78 22 100 16.3 16.0 14.1 0.1 51.2 51.6 15.1 15.9 16.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 76 24 100 16.6 16.0 14.2 -0.3 45.4 47.1 15.3 16.2 17.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 75 25 100 16.6 15.6 12.7 -0.6 40.4 43.7 15.2 16.2 17.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 75 25 100 16.6 15.8 12.5 -0.4 42.1 44.1 15.3 16.2 17.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 59 41 0 100 14.4 14.5 10.0 -1.2 29.9 34.6 14.7 15.8 16.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 75 25 100 16.6 15.9 13.4 -0.3 44.9 46.3 15.3 16.2 17.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 58 42 0 100 15.0 15.3 11.2 -1.1 31.8 36.3 15.3 16.3 17.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 76 24 100 11.1 9.9 9.9 -0.8 37.5 41.9 9.6 10.6 11.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 76 24 100 16.3 15.7 14.0 -0.2 46.1 47.3 15.0 15.9 16.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------