***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 18.03.2021. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 22.03.2021.-28.03.2021. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 66 34 0 100 3.3 3.9 5.5 44.2 34.1 29.7 3.7 7.2 12.1 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 76 24 0 100 2.5 2.9 3.6 33.7 29.0 24.0 3.4 6.3 10.2 30 Becej 27400G00 64 36 0 100 3.9 5.1 6.0 48.7 37.2 31.7 4.3 8.0 13.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 77 23 100 9.6 6.1 9.4 59.4 44.5 39.0 4.0 7.3 11.9 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 78 22 100 9.9 7.8 10.6 74.0 50.7 44.4 4.0 7.6 12.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 85 15 100 8.7 7.5 12.0 73.7 51.3 47.1 3.8 7.1 11.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 77 23 0 100 2.4 2.6 3.2 30.7 27.9 23.1 3.3 6.2 10.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 77 23 100 17.4 13.0 12.4 71.8 48.2 44.0 8.1 13.7 21.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 76 24 100 10.4 7.0 9.5 67.9 46.4 41.1 4.3 7.9 12.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 80 20 100 11.4 9.3 13.1 77.2 51.3 46.5 4.7 8.8 14.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 79 21 100 10.2 8.9 12.1 82.1 54.9 48.3 3.4 7.4 13.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 53 47 0 100 5.1 7.9 10.2 69.3 47.3 42.0 4.8 8.6 13.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 84 16 100 11.0 11.3 13.8 86.5 57.2 51.9 5.1 9.1 14.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 63 37 0 100 6.4 8.0 8.3 50.4 36.2 32.1 7.1 12.6 20.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 78 22 100 8.8 7.2 10.3 71.1 53.8 45.7 2.8 6.2 11.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 80 20 100 9.4 8.0 11.5 77.9 53.2 47.4 3.7 7.2 12.2 30 Nis 06700G01 81 19 0 100 2.2 2.3 2.8 27.9 26.7 21.4 3.3 6.8 12.0 30 Palic 37000G16 0 78 22 100 10.6 7.7 11.8 68.3 45.8 42.1 5.2 8.6 12.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 78 22 0 100 2.5 3.0 4.0 35.6 29.3 24.4 3.6 7.2 12.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 80 20 100 11.0 8.3 13.7 73.1 48.8 45.6 4.8 8.7 14.0 29 Sjenica 27900G10 55 45 0 100 4.4 6.1 8.1 61.1 42.9 37.5 4.2 7.7 12.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 81 19 0 100 2.6 2.6 3.0 27.1 24.9 20.6 4.0 7.5 12.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 75 25 0 100 3.1 3.6 4.6 37.8 29.9 25.2 4.1 7.9 13.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 53 47 0 100 6.3 8.0 8.8 58.5 41.3 36.7 5.9 10.5 16.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 60 40 0 100 4.3 5.4 7.5 52.0 37.9 33.8 4.4 8.0 12.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 79 21 100 8.0 5.2 9.4 61.2 45.3 41.8 3.1 6.0 10.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 66 34 0 100 3.2 3.5 5.7 42.8 32.7 28.8 3.5 6.8 11.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 79 21 100 7.0 5.3 10.8 69.5 51.2 44.4 2.3 5.1 9.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 79 21 100 17.1 12.8 11.9 67.8 45.9 42.6 8.8 14.1 20.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 76 24 0 100 2.0 2.3 3.9 36.0 29.8 25.1 2.7 5.5 9.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------