***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 18.03.2021. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 29.03.2021.-04.04.2021. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 67 33 0 100 2.0 3.9 8.1 66.4 47.8 33.5 2.3 4.2 6.7 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 72 28 0 100 1.7 4.6 8.2 70.3 50.4 33.6 2.2 4.5 7.9 30 Becej 27400G00 68 32 0 100 2.4 5.1 8.9 69.0 48.0 34.9 2.7 5.5 9.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 66 34 0 100 4.1 8.3 10.2 69.0 49.1 35.3 4.6 8.5 13.6 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 65 35 0 100 2.3 4.7 9.9 67.6 47.4 37.2 2.5 5.1 9.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 61 39 0 100 3.4 5.6 11.2 69.2 45.5 37.0 3.7 6.5 10.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 67 33 0 100 1.3 3.3 8.1 71.1 51.3 34.8 1.5 3.1 5.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 61 39 0 100 4.7 7.0 9.6 60.7 42.8 33.5 4.8 9.1 15.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 67 33 0 100 1.8 3.3 9.5 63.7 44.4 34.0 2.0 4.1 7.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 67 33 0 100 2.6 4.6 9.6 61.1 43.0 32.7 3.1 5.8 10.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 67 33 0 100 2.5 4.1 9.0 59.9 41.5 32.7 2.8 5.6 9.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 60 40 0 100 3.2 4.9 9.2 62.2 43.4 34.7 3.3 6.3 10.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 57 43 0 100 3.5 4.7 9.4 58.8 40.6 33.8 3.5 6.5 10.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 64 36 0 100 2.3 4.0 10.4 63.1 44.1 32.1 2.4 5.1 9.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 70 30 0 100 2.9 8.6 10.5 76.4 53.5 37.0 3.4 7.4 13.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 62 38 0 100 3.1 5.0 10.0 64.8 44.3 35.8 3.3 6.0 9.6 30 Nis 06700G01 64 36 0 100 1.7 4.2 8.9 78.5 54.7 38.0 1.8 3.6 6.2 30 Palic 37000G16 68 32 0 100 2.0 3.3 10.0 60.7 41.6 31.8 2.4 4.5 7.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 70 30 0 100 1.8 4.2 8.6 70.7 49.6 33.8 2.2 4.2 6.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 65 35 0 100 3.5 5.0 11.2 58.8 40.4 31.6 3.8 6.8 10.7 29 Sjenica 27900G10 64 36 0 100 2.1 3.9 9.2 66.1 46.3 34.8 2.2 4.5 7.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 66 34 0 100 1.9 4.9 9.9 82.2 56.0 38.4 2.0 4.0 6.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 66 34 0 100 2.1 4.2 9.0 69.5 48.0 33.9 2.3 4.5 7.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 65 35 0 100 2.5 4.4 10.2 65.4 44.9 33.7 2.8 5.3 8.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 62 38 0 100 3.3 6.0 10.3 71.8 49.7 37.4 3.5 6.0 9.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 59 41 0 100 3.0 4.8 10.1 65.5 44.8 36.4 2.9 5.9 10.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 64 36 0 100 1.9 4.0 9.1 69.2 48.5 34.9 2.0 4.3 7.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 68 32 0 100 2.9 6.9 10.6 73.5 51.7 37.0 3.5 6.6 11.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 64 36 0 100 3.9 6.3 11.0 63.0 42.4 33.2 4.2 8.2 13.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 72 28 0 100 1.9 4.1 8.0 67.2 48.2 32.4 2.3 4.4 7.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------