***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 18.03.2021. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 05.04.2021.-11.04.2021. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 52 48 0 100 4.5 7.8 11.5 76.7 51.4 41.5 4.2 7.5 12.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 76 24 100 8.6 7.1 10.2 78.7 53.1 42.9 3.5 6.5 10.6 30 Becej 27400G00 0 76 24 100 9.5 8.2 11.5 79.7 52.8 42.7 4.7 7.6 11.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 53 47 0 100 7.0 11.7 13.3 78.9 52.2 42.1 6.9 11.0 16.3 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 56 44 0 100 5.1 10.3 13.4 83.5 54.3 43.1 4.9 9.1 14.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 53 47 0 100 3.7 8.3 14.9 92.4 57.8 46.2 3.3 6.4 10.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 76 24 100 8.0 6.8 10.4 81.5 54.7 43.6 2.9 5.8 10.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 59 41 0 100 5.9 13.3 14.3 88.4 55.4 42.7 5.9 11.2 18.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 55 45 0 100 4.4 8.9 14.0 83.5 54.0 42.8 4.3 7.8 12.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 57 43 0 100 5.6 11.2 14.8 84.6 53.3 42.0 5.4 10.1 16.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 61 39 0 100 3.9 8.8 12.8 86.1 55.1 42.2 4.0 7.6 12.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 61 39 0 100 3.1 8.4 12.8 89.8 56.8 43.2 3.1 6.4 11.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 57 43 0 100 3.6 8.1 14.1 88.1 55.7 43.1 3.5 6.7 11.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 76 24 100 12.8 10.1 14.2 78.0 50.5 41.2 5.7 9.9 15.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 56 44 0 100 3.1 6.6 12.8 81.5 55.1 43.9 3.0 5.5 9.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 59 41 0 100 3.8 8.2 13.5 88.2 55.8 43.2 4.0 7.0 10.9 30 Nis 06700G01 0 79 21 100 7.5 6.7 10.1 80.4 55.0 44.4 2.9 5.7 9.7 30 Palic 37000G16 55 45 0 100 4.6 8.1 14.8 80.4 50.2 40.4 4.5 8.0 12.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 75 25 100 11.1 9.0 10.1 76.9 51.8 42.0 4.8 8.5 13.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 61 39 0 100 3.6 8.2 16.1 84.9 53.4 42.0 3.6 7.2 12.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 75 25 100 10.2 8.6 12.7 80.2 52.8 42.6 4.8 8.0 12.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 79 21 100 9.8 8.5 10.3 78.1 53.2 43.9 4.1 7.7 12.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 76 24 100 10.2 8.5 10.6 76.8 51.4 41.0 4.9 8.1 12.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 52 48 0 100 5.4 8.5 13.7 80.2 50.9 41.4 5.2 8.3 12.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 53 47 0 100 5.1 8.5 12.9 76.3 51.3 42.5 5.0 8.2 12.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 60 40 0 100 2.7 6.7 12.6 84.3 54.9 41.1 2.5 5.6 10.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 53 47 0 100 4.7 8.3 12.1 76.6 51.4 42.0 4.4 7.9 12.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 54 46 0 100 4.4 8.6 13.5 84.0 54.8 43.5 4.3 7.4 11.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 59 41 0 100 6.8 11.8 14.8 79.6 49.7 40.2 7.0 11.9 18.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 75 25 100 7.7 6.2 10.5 78.9 52.8 42.6 2.9 5.7 9.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------