***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 18.03.2021. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 12.04.2021.-18.04.2021. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 81 19 100 15.0 20.3 15.1 117.3 68.6 58.1 7.2 12.3 18.9 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 78 22 100 13.0 15.0 12.7 105.2 64.4 54.8 7.1 10.9 15.5 30 Becej 27400G00 0 78 22 100 18.2 23.5 15.2 120.5 69.6 58.2 10.0 15.3 21.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 37 63 100 29.0 30.8 19.0 130.1 72.6 60.0 13.2 19.4 26.9 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 80 20 100 17.9 26.8 19.1 137.5 74.8 61.7 9.5 15.0 21.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 79 21 100 16.1 21.3 20.0 124.6 70.9 59.2 9.1 13.6 19.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 78 22 100 13.6 16.5 12.9 106.3 65.1 54.4 6.1 10.7 17.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 80 20 100 28.0 38.7 20.0 134.4 74.1 60.6 17.2 24.5 33.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 80 20 100 15.8 24.7 19.2 134.1 73.9 61.2 7.3 12.7 19.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 80 20 100 17.2 25.2 20.8 131.6 73.2 60.6 9.2 14.5 21.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 79 21 100 16.1 26.2 18.1 137.6 74.9 60.9 7.2 12.8 20.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 81 19 100 15.9 24.1 17.5 133.5 73.7 60.0 8.3 13.3 19.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 78 22 100 18.4 23.6 18.1 116.8 68.2 57.1 9.3 15.1 22.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 78 22 100 20.9 25.4 19.3 116.0 68.0 57.9 12.4 17.9 24.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 78 22 100 16.9 25.9 18.2 135.5 74.2 60.2 8.0 13.6 20.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 80 20 100 18.0 26.8 18.2 128.5 72.1 59.7 8.4 14.5 22.6 30 Nis 06700G01 0 77 23 100 12.0 13.6 12.2 101.1 63.3 52.8 5.8 9.7 14.6 30 Palic 37000G16 0 80 20 100 16.2 22.6 21.3 125.6 71.2 60.1 8.5 13.6 19.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 79 21 100 13.8 16.6 13.3 108.6 65.5 56.2 7.3 11.5 16.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 78 22 100 14.8 18.9 21.5 120.2 69.3 58.4 8.1 12.4 17.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 79 21 100 16.1 22.1 17.1 127.1 71.8 59.9 8.8 13.6 19.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 80 20 100 12.2 14.1 13.0 100.9 62.8 53.3 5.8 10.0 15.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 80 20 100 14.8 18.4 14.6 115.7 68.1 58.3 8.7 12.7 17.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 80 20 100 18.8 26.0 19.3 125.9 71.4 59.7 10.1 15.8 22.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 79 21 100 19.2 24.6 17.1 114.9 67.7 57.8 9.7 15.8 23.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 78 22 100 16.2 20.2 17.1 117.1 68.4 57.5 9.1 13.6 19.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 80 20 100 17.1 22.3 15.9 114.3 67.5 57.6 8.1 13.9 21.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 78 22 100 17.5 26.0 19.1 134.2 73.8 60.3 8.7 14.2 21.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 79 21 100 22.6 29.6 21.1 123.1 70.3 59.4 13.0 19.3 26.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 78 22 100 12.4 15.0 13.4 109.1 65.8 55.7 6.1 10.1 15.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------