***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 18.03.2021. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 22.03.2021.-18.04.2021. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 62 38 0 100 30.9 36.6 40.2 76.5 38.8 37.3 33.4 42.8 52.9 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 62 38 0 100 23.4 28.1 34.7 73.3 37.5 35.9 25.5 35.6 47.2 30 Becej 27400G00 61 39 0 100 35.2 42.0 41.6 79.7 40.5 38.1 37.6 47.6 58.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 76 24 100 64.5 56.0 51.8 83.6 44.0 41.0 49.8 59.6 70.0 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 77 23 100 55.9 50.7 53.1 89.9 48.2 44.4 42.7 51.6 61.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 76 24 100 49.4 42.4 58.1 89.9 46.8 43.7 34.5 44.3 54.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 55 45 0 100 23.4 27.3 34.6 74.1 38.6 36.8 24.0 34.3 46.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 55 45 0 100 59.7 70.9 56.2 88.2 44.3 42.0 61.5 75.6 90.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 76 24 100 50.5 43.4 52.1 87.1 45.4 42.3 36.8 45.8 55.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 53 47 0 100 41.6 50.6 58.4 88.6 45.2 42.7 42.6 53.7 65.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 75 25 100 54.6 46.8 52.1 90.0 47.4 43.8 37.5 48.5 60.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 75 25 100 53.5 44.6 49.7 87.6 45.1 42.4 37.1 47.7 59.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 78 22 100 55.2 46.7 55.4 87.3 44.9 42.7 39.1 49.9 61.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 64 36 0 100 43.0 47.7 52.2 77.1 34.4 33.8 46.9 59.0 72.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 77 23 100 53.5 48.7 51.8 90.3 51.0 45.7 37.2 48.0 59.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 77 23 100 52.3 45.0 53.2 89.2 47.3 43.9 36.1 46.8 58.9 30 Nis 06700G01 57 43 0 100 23.4 27.9 34.0 73.8 39.0 37.1 24.4 34.6 46.2 30 Palic 37000G16 56 44 0 100 33.6 38.4 57.9 84.1 39.4 38.7 34.8 44.4 54.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 65 35 0 100 26.5 31.9 36.0 73.8 37.0 35.3 29.5 40.6 53.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 59 41 0 100 35.9 41.5 62.4 84.5 39.6 38.6 38.0 47.6 57.8 29 Sjenica 27900G10 52 48 0 100 32.9 39.1 47.1 83.4 43.1 40.4 33.5 43.2 54.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 62 38 0 100 23.5 28.9 36.2 73.7 38.2 36.4 25.8 36.9 50.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 70 30 0 100 29.9 35.8 38.8 75.2 36.7 34.5 33.9 43.0 53.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 57 43 0 100 38.0 43.9 52.0 82.5 39.6 38.3 39.7 50.8 62.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 58 42 0 100 38.9 44.4 47.9 78.9 39.7 38.2 40.8 50.0 59.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 51 49 0 100 33.6 37.4 49.1 81.6 39.3 38.3 34.0 43.5 53.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 60 40 0 100 32.3 37.4 42.8 76.3 38.1 37.0 34.4 44.8 56.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 76 24 100 51.5 46.2 53.9 89.6 49.2 44.6 37.5 46.7 56.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 59 41 0 100 52.0 58.3 58.8 83.4 37.7 37.5 54.6 68.0 82.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 61 39 0 100 21.9 26.2 35.9 74.1 37.6 35.8 23.8 33.5 44.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------