***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 19.03.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 23.03.2015.-29.03.2015. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 38 62 100 5.2 5.1 4.2 1.3 67.5 65.4 2.3 3.7 5.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 82 18 100 3.6 4.0 3.5 0.7 60.3 58.9 2.1 3.3 4.4 30 Becej 27400G00 0 85 15 100 5.9 6.5 3.8 1.0 63.6 62.0 4.5 5.6 6.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 88 12 100 -0.1 0.1 1.2 0.5 57.4 56.8 -1.7 -0.4 0.8 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 86 14 100 3.1 3.5 1.8 0.6 59.3 58.5 1.3 2.7 4.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 24 76 100 3.6 3.7 0.3 1.6 73.3 71.6 0.5 1.8 3.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 81 19 100 3.8 4.2 3.6 0.8 62.3 60.6 2.3 3.4 4.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 32 68 100 -1.8 -1.5 0.6 1.7 72.2 70.5 -5.1 -3.6 -2.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 87 13 100 3.9 4.7 2.5 0.9 64.5 63.0 2.4 3.6 4.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 41 59 100 4.7 4.8 1.2 1.4 68.3 66.8 2.5 3.6 4.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 41 59 100 4.7 4.7 1.8 1.2 68.3 66.7 2.2 3.4 4.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 34 66 100 3.4 3.6 1.3 1.4 71.1 69.4 0.6 1.9 3.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 30 70 100 4.6 4.7 1.2 1.5 72.2 70.6 1.6 2.9 4.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 85 15 100 4.1 4.2 2.1 0.4 56.2 55.6 2.8 3.8 4.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 47 53 100 4.6 4.6 2.8 1.0 66.0 64.3 2.6 3.6 4.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 41 59 100 5.3 5.4 1.5 1.2 68.8 67.3 2.6 3.9 5.2 30 Nis 06700G01 0 81 19 100 3.8 3.9 3.1 0.5 56.9 56.0 2.6 3.5 4.4 30 Palic 37000G16 0 87 13 100 1.7 2.2 0.0 1.1 62.9 62.1 0.3 1.4 2.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 82 18 100 3.7 3.9 3.5 0.6 59.4 58.2 2.1 3.3 4.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 36 64 100 0.1 0.3 -1.7 1.8 70.6 69.5 -2.7 -1.4 -0.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 86 14 100 3.8 4.5 3.5 0.9 63.5 62.1 2.2 3.5 4.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 81 19 100 3.2 3.1 3.0 0.2 53.0 52.7 1.8 2.9 3.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 83 17 100 3.3 3.5 3.2 0.6 58.5 57.4 1.8 2.9 4.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 87 13 100 3.5 3.9 1.9 0.7 59.8 58.9 2.2 3.3 4.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 43 57 100 4.9 4.9 3.1 1.2 67.8 65.9 2.1 3.5 4.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 48 52 100 4.0 4.3 0.8 1.4 69.0 67.6 1.6 2.9 4.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 40 60 100 5.5 5.5 3.6 1.2 67.6 65.6 2.3 3.8 5.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 88 12 100 2.4 2.9 1.8 0.7 60.0 59.3 0.9 2.2 3.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 86 14 100 0.8 1.5 -0.8 1.2 63.8 63.0 -0.9 0.5 1.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 82 18 100 4.2 4.7 3.8 0.9 62.9 61.2 2.5 3.8 4.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------