***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 19.03.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 30.03.2015.-05.04.2015. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 79 21 100 5.3 5.1 4.4 0.2 54.2 53.2 4.0 4.9 5.8 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 79 21 100 5.3 5.4 4.5 0.5 59.2 57.1 4.1 5.0 5.8 30 Becej 27400G00 0 77 23 100 7.7 7.5 4.2 0.2 53.8 52.9 6.3 7.3 8.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 78 22 100 1.7 1.4 1.9 0.0 51.0 51.3 0.2 1.3 2.4 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 76 24 100 4.1 3.5 1.9 -0.1 48.0 48.9 2.5 3.6 4.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 80 20 100 3.0 2.9 0.4 0.2 54.1 53.2 1.6 2.6 3.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 79 21 100 5.3 5.5 4.6 0.6 60.9 58.4 4.1 5.0 5.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 55 45 0 100 -3.7 -2.9 0.0 -0.5 40.6 43.0 -3.4 -2.3 -1.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 78 22 100 5.0 4.5 2.4 -0.1 47.1 48.2 3.7 4.6 5.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 54 46 0 100 3.5 4.1 0.6 -0.5 39.5 42.1 3.7 4.7 5.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 76 24 100 4.7 4.1 1.5 -0.2 46.6 47.6 3.2 4.3 5.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 76 24 100 3.3 2.6 1.1 -0.2 46.4 47.6 1.8 2.9 3.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 77 23 100 4.1 3.6 0.7 -0.1 48.7 49.6 2.6 3.7 4.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 77 23 100 5.6 5.1 2.5 -0.2 46.7 48.0 4.3 5.3 6.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 78 22 100 5.1 5.1 2.7 0.3 56.4 55.4 3.6 4.7 5.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 78 22 100 5.4 5.0 1.2 0.0 49.5 50.1 3.9 5.0 6.0 30 Nis 06700G01 0 80 20 100 5.4 5.6 4.5 0.5 60.2 58.1 4.3 5.1 5.9 30 Palic 37000G16 55 45 0 100 1.1 1.5 -0.2 -0.8 35.5 39.5 1.3 2.2 3.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 80 20 100 5.1 5.2 4.4 0.4 57.1 55.4 3.9 4.8 5.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 58 42 0 100 -1.6 -1.3 -2.2 -1.0 32.9 37.8 -1.3 -0.2 0.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 78 22 100 4.9 4.5 3.5 0.0 49.8 50.2 3.4 4.5 5.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 80 20 100 4.5 4.6 4.4 0.4 57.8 56.2 3.4 4.2 5.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 79 21 100 4.6 4.5 4.0 0.2 53.7 52.7 3.4 4.3 5.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 76 24 100 5.0 4.2 2.1 -0.3 44.9 46.5 3.5 4.5 5.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 78 22 100 5.2 4.9 2.7 0.1 51.9 51.7 3.8 4.8 5.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 76 24 100 4.1 3.5 0.9 -0.1 47.5 49.2 2.6 3.7 4.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 79 21 100 5.9 5.8 3.7 0.2 54.6 53.7 4.2 5.5 6.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 79 21 100 3.1 2.9 2.2 0.1 53.3 53.2 1.6 2.7 3.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 54 46 0 100 0.6 1.1 -0.7 -0.7 37.0 41.3 0.9 2.0 3.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 79 21 100 5.7 5.8 4.6 0.4 58.3 56.3 4.3 5.3 6.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------