***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 19.03.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 06.04.2015.-12.04.2015. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 76 24 100 6.4 5.9 5.6 0.0 50.1 49.2 4.8 5.9 7.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 51 49 0 100 4.2 5.6 5.5 0.1 51.7 50.5 4.4 5.5 6.5 30 Becej 27400G00 0 75 25 100 8.3 7.8 5.3 0.0 50.4 49.6 6.6 7.8 8.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 76 24 100 2.5 2.0 3.1 0.1 51.4 50.9 0.4 1.9 3.3 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 77 23 100 5.1 4.7 3.1 0.0 50.9 50.8 3.5 4.6 5.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 76 24 100 4.1 3.6 1.4 0.0 49.4 49.9 2.6 3.7 4.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 76 24 100 6.2 6.0 5.6 0.2 53.2 51.7 4.7 5.8 6.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 77 23 100 -1.1 -1.9 1.3 -0.2 47.1 48.2 -3.0 -1.6 -0.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 51 49 0 100 4.2 5.4 3.6 0.0 50.1 50.1 4.4 5.4 6.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 77 23 100 5.9 5.3 1.9 -0.1 47.4 48.5 4.5 5.5 6.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 79 21 100 5.7 5.4 2.7 0.1 51.4 51.5 4.3 5.3 6.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 79 21 100 4.4 3.9 2.3 0.0 49.4 49.9 2.8 3.9 5.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 78 22 100 5.3 4.8 1.8 0.0 49.4 50.0 3.8 4.9 5.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 76 24 100 6.4 6.0 3.6 -0.1 48.8 48.8 5.1 6.1 6.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 75 25 100 6.6 6.4 3.8 0.2 53.3 52.2 5.3 6.2 7.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 78 22 100 6.4 6.0 2.3 0.0 50.8 50.9 4.8 6.0 7.0 30 Nis 06700G01 0 78 22 100 6.2 5.9 5.4 0.1 52.3 51.1 4.8 5.8 6.7 30 Palic 37000G16 51 49 0 100 2.3 3.1 1.1 -0.3 44.7 46.5 2.5 3.4 4.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 52 48 0 100 4.3 5.6 5.4 0.0 50.7 49.8 4.5 5.6 6.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 52 48 0 100 -0.5 0.3 -0.7 -0.5 41.2 43.9 -0.3 0.8 1.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 75 25 100 6.0 5.5 4.6 0.0 50.1 49.7 4.3 5.5 6.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 79 21 100 5.5 5.3 5.3 0.1 52.0 50.9 4.3 5.2 6.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 51 49 0 100 4.1 5.2 4.9 0.0 49.7 49.0 4.2 5.2 6.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 75 25 100 5.9 5.3 3.3 -0.1 48.2 48.5 4.5 5.4 6.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 55 45 0 100 4.1 5.6 3.9 0.0 50.2 49.8 4.4 5.6 6.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 79 21 100 5.0 4.2 1.8 -0.4 42.8 45.4 3.6 4.7 5.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 51 49 0 100 4.4 6.2 4.8 0.0 50.4 49.7 4.7 6.1 7.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 75 25 100 4.7 4.3 3.4 0.1 51.8 51.3 3.1 4.2 5.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 77 23 100 3.0 2.1 0.5 -0.3 44.0 46.2 1.3 2.5 3.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 52 48 0 100 4.6 6.0 5.6 0.1 51.4 50.3 4.8 5.9 7.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------