***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 19.03.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 23.03.2015.-29.03.2015. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 83 17 100 14.9 14.2 12.5 -0.3 46.3 46.4 13.1 14.5 15.8 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 81 19 100 15.0 14.4 12.7 -0.1 48.5 48.6 13.2 14.5 15.8 30 Becej 27400G00 0 84 16 100 15.5 14.8 12.6 -0.4 45.9 46.1 13.7 15.1 16.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 51 49 0 100 5.3 5.7 9.2 -1.3 35.4 36.5 5.5 7.0 8.5 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 81 19 100 15.8 14.3 10.5 -1.0 39.3 40.2 13.8 15.3 16.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 90 10 100 14.6 14.1 9.0 -0.2 48.1 48.5 12.5 14.3 15.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 80 20 100 14.8 14.4 12.6 0.0 50.3 50.1 13.1 14.3 15.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 85 15 100 3.7 2.3 8.6 -1.0 39.9 40.5 1.7 3.3 4.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 83 17 100 15.6 14.5 11.7 -0.7 42.5 43.2 13.6 15.1 16.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 85 15 100 15.5 14.4 10.0 -0.8 42.2 42.8 13.5 15.1 16.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 84 16 100 15.6 14.4 10.5 -0.8 42.2 42.8 13.6 15.1 16.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 83 17 100 14.8 13.3 9.4 -1.0 39.6 40.4 12.6 14.3 15.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 88 12 100 15.6 14.8 10.0 -0.4 45.4 45.9 13.6 15.2 16.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 83 17 100 15.7 14.8 11.7 -0.6 43.7 44.4 13.9 15.3 16.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 53 47 0 100 13.0 13.5 10.8 -1.1 36.2 37.2 13.3 14.6 15.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 86 14 100 16.0 15.1 10.4 -0.5 45.1 45.6 13.9 15.6 17.1 30 Nis 06700G01 0 82 18 100 13.9 13.4 12.4 -0.1 49.0 49.1 12.3 13.5 14.6 30 Palic 37000G16 0 84 16 100 15.1 13.8 9.1 -0.9 41.2 41.9 13.1 14.7 16.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 81 19 100 15.1 14.5 12.7 -0.2 47.3 47.6 13.4 14.7 15.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 81 19 100 10.0 8.3 6.2 -1.2 38.0 38.7 7.8 9.4 11.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 83 17 100 15.6 14.5 12.3 -0.6 42.9 43.4 13.7 15.1 16.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 81 19 100 15.0 14.2 12.4 -0.3 46.3 46.8 13.2 14.5 15.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 80 20 100 15.5 14.7 12.7 -0.4 45.8 46.3 13.7 15.0 16.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 84 16 100 15.6 14.6 11.3 -0.6 44.1 44.7 13.6 15.1 16.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 82 18 100 15.2 14.3 11.0 -0.5 43.6 43.9 13.5 14.8 15.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 83 17 100 15.2 13.7 8.3 -1.0 39.5 40.3 13.1 14.7 16.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 83 17 100 15.2 14.6 12.0 -0.2 47.8 47.8 13.5 14.8 16.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 76 24 100 15.5 13.8 10.1 -1.2 36.9 37.9 13.4 14.9 16.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 84 16 100 10.1 8.7 8.1 -0.9 40.8 41.6 7.9 9.6 11.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 82 18 100 14.9 14.3 12.7 -0.1 48.2 48.2 13.2 14.5 15.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------