***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 19.03.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 30.03.2015.-05.04.2015. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 77 23 100 17.5 17.4 14.2 0.4 55.5 54.9 15.5 16.9 18.3 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 76 24 100 17.5 17.5 14.3 0.5 57.4 56.0 15.7 17.0 18.2 30 Becej 27400G00 0 77 23 100 17.7 17.6 14.3 0.4 55.0 54.5 15.8 17.2 18.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 81 19 100 9.6 9.6 12.6 0.4 55.2 54.4 7.4 9.1 10.6 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 78 22 100 17.9 17.6 12.7 0.2 53.2 52.9 15.7 17.3 18.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 77 23 100 16.5 15.8 10.6 -0.1 49.1 49.8 14.2 15.8 17.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 77 23 100 17.3 17.3 14.2 0.5 57.3 55.8 15.6 16.8 17.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 75 25 100 5.3 4.4 10.8 -0.2 47.4 48.7 3.2 4.6 6.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 78 22 100 17.5 17.1 13.1 0.2 52.5 52.5 15.4 16.9 18.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 76 24 100 17.6 16.8 11.6 -0.1 48.6 49.6 15.3 16.9 18.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 79 21 100 17.6 17.1 12.2 0.1 51.2 51.3 15.4 17.0 18.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 77 23 100 16.7 16.0 11.7 -0.1 49.1 49.8 14.4 16.0 17.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 75 25 100 17.7 16.9 11.2 -0.1 48.4 49.3 15.4 17.0 18.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 76 24 100 17.7 17.4 13.0 0.3 53.6 53.4 15.7 17.1 18.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 81 19 100 16.8 16.9 13.0 0.5 57.1 55.8 14.9 16.3 17.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 78 22 100 18.0 17.4 11.9 0.1 50.7 50.9 15.7 17.4 18.9 30 Nis 06700G01 0 77 23 100 16.6 16.7 14.1 0.6 58.4 56.4 15.0 16.1 17.2 30 Palic 37000G16 0 75 25 100 17.3 16.3 10.8 -0.3 46.7 48.5 15.1 16.6 18.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 76 24 100 17.4 17.4 14.4 0.5 57.0 55.8 15.5 16.8 18.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 55 45 0 100 9.3 10.5 8.1 -0.7 42.1 45.0 9.6 11.2 12.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 77 23 100 17.7 17.4 13.8 0.3 53.9 53.7 15.6 17.1 18.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 76 24 100 17.4 17.4 14.2 0.6 58.2 56.3 15.6 16.8 18.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 76 24 100 17.7 17.6 14.3 0.4 55.9 55.0 15.7 17.2 18.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 76 24 100 17.7 17.2 12.8 0.1 51.6 52.0 15.6 17.1 18.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 78 22 100 17.4 17.3 12.9 0.4 55.9 55.2 15.5 16.8 18.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 76 24 100 16.8 15.8 10.8 -0.3 46.3 47.9 14.5 16.1 17.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 77 23 100 17.7 17.6 13.6 0.4 55.9 55.2 15.8 17.1 18.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 82 18 100 16.9 16.9 12.8 0.3 54.7 53.9 14.8 16.4 18.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 51 49 0 100 9.5 10.9 9.7 -0.3 46.5 48.4 9.7 11.3 12.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 77 23 100 17.4 17.4 14.3 0.4 56.6 55.5 15.6 16.9 18.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------