***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 19.03.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 06.04.2015.-12.04.2015. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 78 22 100 17.2 16.5 15.5 -0.1 49.3 50.0 15.1 16.6 18.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 77 23 100 17.4 16.7 15.4 0.0 49.5 50.4 15.2 16.7 18.2 30 Becej 27400G00 0 78 22 100 17.7 16.9 15.5 -0.2 47.9 49.0 15.6 17.1 18.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 80 20 100 10.8 9.6 13.7 -0.4 45.4 47.2 8.1 10.1 12.0 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 79 21 100 18.3 17.1 13.8 -0.5 44.1 46.2 15.9 17.7 19.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 75 25 100 17.6 15.5 11.7 -0.9 39.1 43.0 14.8 16.7 18.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 77 23 100 17.2 16.7 15.4 0.0 50.3 50.9 15.2 16.6 18.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 77 23 100 5.9 4.3 12.0 -0.9 39.5 43.0 3.6 5.3 6.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 78 22 100 17.9 16.7 14.3 -0.5 44.4 46.4 15.6 17.3 18.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 77 23 100 18.1 16.6 12.9 -0.7 41.6 44.5 15.7 17.4 19.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 79 21 100 18.2 16.7 13.3 -0.7 41.8 44.7 15.8 17.6 19.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 77 23 100 17.5 15.6 12.9 -0.9 39.5 42.9 14.9 16.7 18.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 76 24 100 18.5 16.4 12.3 -1.0 38.4 42.3 15.8 17.7 19.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 76 24 100 17.6 16.6 14.2 -0.4 45.8 47.8 15.4 17.0 18.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 80 20 100 18.1 17.3 14.0 -0.2 46.7 47.9 16.0 17.6 19.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 78 22 100 18.7 17.0 12.9 -0.8 40.5 43.8 16.1 18.0 19.7 30 Nis 06700G01 0 76 24 100 16.5 16.0 15.2 0.0 50.5 51.1 14.6 16.0 17.3 30 Palic 37000G16 0 77 23 100 17.5 15.9 12.3 -0.8 41.3 44.4 15.0 16.8 18.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 77 23 100 17.3 16.6 15.5 -0.1 48.7 49.8 15.1 16.7 18.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 75 25 100 12.5 10.5 9.7 -1.1 37.1 41.4 10.0 11.7 13.3 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 78 22 100 17.9 16.9 15.0 -0.3 46.3 47.8 15.7 17.3 18.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 77 23 100 17.2 16.7 15.3 0.0 50.1 51.0 15.2 16.6 18.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 77 23 100 17.6 16.7 15.4 -0.2 47.6 49.0 15.4 17.0 18.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 77 23 100 17.5 16.4 14.0 -0.4 44.9 46.9 15.3 16.9 18.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 79 21 100 17.7 17.0 14.1 -0.1 48.1 49.3 15.7 17.2 18.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 53 47 0 100 14.8 15.6 11.9 -1.0 36.6 41.1 15.2 17.0 18.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 78 22 100 17.7 17.1 14.8 0.0 49.5 50.3 15.6 17.1 18.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 81 19 100 18.4 17.3 13.8 -0.4 44.3 46.2 16.1 17.9 19.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 75 25 100 12.4 10.7 11.2 -0.9 40.4 43.8 10.0 11.7 13.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 77 23 100 17.3 16.6 15.5 -0.1 49.3 50.2 15.2 16.7 18.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------