***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 19.03.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 13.04.2015.-19.04.2015. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 31 69 100 18.4 18.0 17.6 1.2 66.3 61.9 15.0 16.5 17.9 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 30 70 100 18.0 17.7 17.4 1.2 66.8 61.8 14.9 16.3 17.6 30 Becej 27400G00 0 32 68 100 18.0 17.6 17.7 1.2 65.7 61.4 14.9 16.3 17.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 34 66 100 10.9 10.4 16.0 1.0 63.9 60.9 7.7 9.2 10.6 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 33 67 100 18.4 17.8 16.3 1.1 64.1 60.9 15.1 16.6 18.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 76 24 100 16.0 16.4 14.5 1.0 62.5 60.1 14.0 15.4 16.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 30 70 100 17.9 17.5 17.4 1.2 67.0 62.0 14.8 16.2 17.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 36 64 100 5.9 5.4 14.8 1.1 64.1 61.0 2.8 4.2 5.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 32 68 100 17.9 17.3 16.7 1.1 64.2 60.9 14.6 16.1 17.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 35 65 100 17.8 17.3 15.6 1.1 63.9 60.8 14.7 16.1 17.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 37 63 100 18.1 17.6 15.9 1.1 64.0 61.0 14.9 16.4 17.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 38 62 100 17.0 16.6 15.6 1.1 63.9 60.8 14.0 15.5 16.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 77 23 100 17.0 17.5 15.2 1.0 63.0 60.5 15.0 16.4 17.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 33 67 100 17.8 17.3 16.4 1.2 64.5 60.3 14.8 16.2 17.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 35 65 100 18.1 17.7 16.2 0.9 63.3 60.5 15.5 16.7 17.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 78 22 100 17.3 17.9 15.6 1.0 63.4 60.6 15.2 16.7 18.1 30 Nis 06700G01 0 30 70 100 17.4 17.1 17.2 1.2 66.9 61.6 14.5 15.8 17.1 30 Palic 37000G16 0 31 69 100 17.5 16.9 15.0 1.2 63.9 60.6 14.2 15.7 17.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 32 68 100 17.7 17.4 17.5 1.2 66.5 61.5 14.7 16.1 17.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 30 70 100 12.3 11.7 12.7 1.1 64.1 60.9 9.0 10.5 11.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 31 69 100 18.1 17.6 17.3 1.1 64.7 61.1 14.8 16.3 17.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 31 69 100 17.9 17.6 17.3 1.3 66.8 61.3 15.0 16.3 17.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 33 67 100 17.9 17.6 17.5 1.2 65.7 61.0 14.9 16.3 17.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 32 68 100 17.8 17.3 16.4 1.2 64.4 60.6 14.6 16.1 17.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 32 68 100 18.1 17.7 16.3 1.1 65.5 61.7 15.0 16.4 17.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 76 24 100 16.3 16.7 14.8 0.9 62.7 60.1 14.4 15.7 17.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 31 69 100 18.0 17.6 16.9 1.2 66.3 62.1 14.8 16.2 17.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 38 62 100 18.0 17.6 16.2 0.9 62.9 60.3 15.3 16.6 17.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 31 69 100 12.1 11.6 14.0 1.2 64.1 60.7 8.8 10.3 11.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 31 69 100 17.8 17.5 17.6 1.2 66.7 61.9 14.7 16.1 17.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------