***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 19.03.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 23.03.2015.-19.04.2015. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 75 25 100 16.6 16.6 15.0 0.3 57.8 56.0 15.1 16.1 17.1 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 77 23 100 16.5 16.7 14.9 0.4 60.4 57.6 15.3 16.1 17.0 30 Becej 27400G00 0 76 24 100 16.8 16.8 15.0 0.2 56.4 55.0 15.5 16.4 17.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 76 24 100 9.3 8.7 12.9 -0.1 48.1 49.3 7.8 8.9 9.9 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 75 25 100 17.2 16.6 13.3 0.0 48.9 49.9 15.7 16.7 17.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 75 25 100 16.0 15.5 11.5 0.0 49.0 50.1 14.5 15.6 16.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 76 24 100 16.3 16.6 14.9 0.4 61.7 58.5 15.1 16.0 16.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 53 47 0 100 3.2 4.0 11.6 -0.3 44.1 46.3 3.4 4.4 5.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 76 24 100 16.8 16.4 13.9 0.0 50.7 51.1 15.4 16.4 17.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 51 49 0 100 15.2 16.2 12.5 -0.1 47.0 48.5 15.4 16.4 17.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 76 24 100 17.0 16.4 13.0 -0.1 48.4 49.6 15.5 16.5 17.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 75 25 100 16.1 15.3 12.4 -0.2 44.7 46.8 14.6 15.6 16.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 77 23 100 17.0 16.4 12.2 -0.1 46.9 48.6 15.5 16.6 17.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 78 22 100 16.7 16.6 13.9 0.1 53.2 52.9 15.5 16.4 17.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 78 22 100 16.6 16.3 13.5 0.0 50.1 50.6 15.4 16.3 17.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 78 22 100 17.3 16.8 12.7 0.0 49.0 50.2 15.8 16.9 17.9 30 Nis 06700G01 0 76 24 100 15.7 15.9 14.7 0.4 61.8 58.4 14.5 15.4 16.1 30 Palic 37000G16 52 48 0 100 14.8 15.7 11.8 -0.2 45.5 47.6 15.0 15.9 16.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 77 23 100 16.4 16.5 15.0 0.3 59.2 56.8 15.2 16.1 16.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 56 44 0 100 9.4 10.1 9.2 -0.5 39.6 43.5 9.7 10.7 11.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 77 23 100 16.9 16.6 14.6 0.1 52.8 52.6 15.5 16.5 17.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 77 23 100 16.4 16.6 14.8 0.4 60.3 57.4 15.2 16.1 16.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 78 22 100 16.7 16.7 14.9 0.3 57.0 55.4 15.5 16.4 17.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 77 23 100 16.7 16.4 13.6 0.1 51.7 51.8 15.3 16.3 17.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 76 24 100 16.7 16.6 13.6 0.2 55.2 54.4 15.4 16.3 17.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 59 41 0 100 14.5 15.4 11.4 -0.4 41.6 44.5 14.8 15.9 16.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 51 49 0 100 15.2 16.8 14.3 0.3 58.8 56.7 15.4 16.3 17.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 77 23 100 16.8 16.3 13.2 -0.1 47.9 49.2 15.5 16.4 17.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 55 45 0 100 9.4 10.4 10.7 -0.2 44.9 47.2 9.7 10.7 11.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 76 24 100 16.4 16.5 15.0 0.4 59.7 57.1 15.1 16.0 16.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------