***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 19.03.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 23.03.2015.-29.03.2015. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 77 23 100 8.8 12.7 15.2 124.8 70.9 60.2 3.6 6.7 10.9 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 79 21 100 6.9 9.8 14.1 121.7 69.8 56.5 3.0 5.4 8.8 30 Becej 27400G00 0 37 63 100 13.5 15.7 17.7 136.9 75.1 61.8 3.8 7.2 11.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 43 57 100 13.2 17.2 20.8 144.5 77.4 65.4 4.0 7.4 12.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 39 61 100 13.0 16.0 20.2 141.7 76.7 64.3 3.9 7.2 11.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 32 68 100 14.1 18.7 22.7 152.5 80.1 68.2 3.9 7.3 12.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 76 24 100 6.8 8.7 13.2 115.0 67.1 55.2 2.7 5.0 8.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 39 61 100 22.0 28.1 22.8 147.2 78.3 66.8 7.6 13.0 20.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 36 64 100 13.2 15.9 20.0 138.7 76.1 62.6 3.1 6.4 11.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 39 61 100 14.8 18.4 22.3 140.2 76.5 64.6 4.0 7.7 13.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 38 62 100 14.9 19.8 20.7 148.7 78.7 66.8 3.9 7.7 13.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 39 61 100 14.0 19.0 21.3 154.3 80.2 68.0 4.7 8.1 12.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 29 71 100 16.9 22.1 23.0 157.2 81.3 69.5 5.4 9.2 14.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 40 60 100 19.3 23.2 22.2 138.6 75.5 62.5 5.6 10.4 17.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 37 63 100 12.4 18.4 21.9 161.8 81.4 67.9 2.9 6.0 10.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 39 61 100 13.5 18.2 21.3 149.4 79.1 66.7 3.8 7.3 11.9 30 Nis 06700G01 0 75 25 100 7.9 10.2 12.7 114.0 66.8 52.8 2.6 5.4 9.9 30 Palic 37000G16 0 36 64 100 13.1 14.7 23.8 135.5 75.2 63.4 5.1 8.1 11.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 80 20 100 8.0 13.1 15.6 129.4 72.5 58.5 3.0 6.1 10.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 81 19 100 10.4 17.1 25.2 134.5 74.6 63.7 4.7 8.3 13.3 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 36 64 100 13.4 15.5 18.4 137.3 75.3 62.2 3.9 7.1 11.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 78 22 100 8.4 11.5 13.8 120.0 69.1 54.0 3.6 6.6 10.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 78 22 100 9.3 15.4 18.1 137.1 75.2 60.5 3.9 7.2 11.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 36 64 100 15.8 18.8 22.2 140.0 76.5 63.3 5.1 8.9 14.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 77 23 100 9.8 14.2 17.8 125.1 71.1 59.4 3.9 7.4 12.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 30 70 100 12.9 20.4 24.0 174.3 85.1 72.9 3.3 6.4 10.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 76 24 100 8.4 11.3 15.8 118.7 68.5 58.4 3.1 6.1 10.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 41 59 100 9.6 13.6 21.4 152.9 79.4 67.0 2.3 4.8 8.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 40 60 100 19.8 22.9 24.6 135.5 75.0 63.7 7.3 12.1 18.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 78 22 100 6.9 10.2 14.7 124.4 70.8 58.5 2.7 5.3 8.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------