***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 19.03.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 30.03.2015.-05.04.2015. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 59 41 0 100 1.9 6.9 14.2 108.3 64.7 47.9 1.9 4.0 7.1 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 58 42 0 100 2.6 6.5 12.9 94.5 58.0 47.7 2.5 5.0 8.6 30 Becej 27400G00 54 46 0 100 3.2 8.2 14.0 97.8 59.8 47.2 3.0 5.9 10.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 75 25 100 11.7 12.1 15.3 97.6 60.5 47.8 4.9 8.9 14.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 51 49 0 100 3.2 8.6 15.9 101.8 62.2 49.7 2.7 5.6 9.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 75 25 100 8.0 8.6 19.1 103.3 61.7 50.3 3.3 6.0 9.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 53 47 0 100 2.3 5.8 12.8 97.0 59.5 48.5 2.0 4.1 7.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 75 25 100 11.4 11.8 16.4 100.6 60.5 49.7 3.9 8.1 14.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 76 24 100 6.1 7.0 16.3 104.8 63.4 50.1 2.2 4.4 7.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 75 25 100 8.0 8.9 17.6 104.2 62.7 50.7 2.9 5.8 9.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 51 49 0 100 2.6 7.4 14.9 102.1 62.2 49.8 2.2 4.6 8.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 77 23 100 7.7 8.0 14.1 98.6 60.2 48.7 2.8 5.6 9.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 80 20 100 8.1 9.0 16.2 100.1 61.1 50.4 3.5 6.4 10.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 54 46 0 100 3.4 7.6 18.0 94.8 57.4 47.0 3.2 6.0 10.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 58 42 0 100 4.5 11.2 13.4 90.4 58.3 45.8 4.3 8.5 14.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 76 24 100 7.1 7.7 15.5 101.3 61.7 49.8 3.0 5.4 8.7 30 Nis 06700G01 52 48 0 100 2.4 5.7 12.2 94.0 58.5 48.4 2.2 4.3 7.3 30 Palic 37000G16 51 49 0 100 2.5 6.5 20.2 105.5 62.9 51.0 2.2 4.3 7.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 58 42 0 100 2.3 5.6 13.2 93.7 57.8 47.3 2.3 4.4 7.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 56 44 0 100 4.0 9.1 20.7 102.6 60.8 49.2 4.0 6.8 10.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 54 46 0 100 2.6 8.0 15.1 106.7 64.4 49.4 2.3 4.8 8.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 55 45 0 100 2.5 5.5 12.9 91.9 56.7 46.9 2.3 4.4 7.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 58 42 0 100 2.9 6.7 14.3 94.8 58.2 47.2 2.8 5.3 8.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 51 49 0 100 3.3 7.9 17.6 99.4 60.0 48.7 3.0 5.7 9.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 51 49 0 100 3.6 9.3 16.7 107.9 64.3 49.5 3.3 6.0 9.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 79 21 100 7.7 8.1 14.8 98.7 60.1 49.8 3.0 5.9 9.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 55 45 0 100 2.5 7.6 15.8 109.1 64.8 49.0 2.3 4.6 7.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 51 49 0 100 4.1 9.7 14.7 95.0 59.8 47.2 3.6 7.0 11.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 51 49 0 100 5.4 13.4 21.3 107.2 63.5 51.0 4.9 8.9 14.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 57 43 0 100 2.5 6.2 13.2 96.3 59.0 47.5 2.5 4.6 7.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------