***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 19.03.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 06.04.2015.-12.04.2015. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 53 47 0 100 5.3 15.6 13.5 121.9 70.0 51.7 5.1 8.9 13.9 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 52 48 0 100 4.8 13.0 12.8 111.2 65.6 48.1 4.3 8.1 13.2 30 Becej 27400G00 0 76 24 100 11.1 14.2 13.7 117.3 68.2 49.7 5.1 8.7 13.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 76 24 100 13.9 20.6 16.6 130.5 72.8 54.7 5.9 10.6 16.9 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 77 23 100 12.9 18.8 16.4 126.6 71.6 54.4 5.5 9.9 16.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 39 61 100 14.6 17.4 20.9 137.4 75.3 61.2 3.8 7.5 12.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 57 43 0 100 3.2 9.8 12.3 107.5 63.9 46.7 2.9 6.1 10.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 35 65 100 25.6 27.7 19.1 133.6 73.6 58.4 8.7 14.7 22.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 77 23 100 11.5 16.0 16.2 122.5 70.1 53.2 5.0 8.9 14.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 75 25 100 15.8 20.7 18.4 123.2 70.4 54.9 7.9 12.7 18.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 77 23 100 11.7 17.7 16.2 130.5 72.8 56.9 4.8 9.0 14.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 36 64 100 16.6 20.3 17.2 144.7 76.5 60.8 4.0 8.1 14.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 33 67 100 17.3 21.5 19.3 147.5 78.0 62.8 4.5 8.7 14.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 76 24 100 14.3 17.6 17.0 112.7 66.0 49.2 5.9 10.9 17.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 56 44 0 100 3.0 13.5 16.1 135.8 74.3 54.2 2.8 5.8 10.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 51 49 0 100 5.5 18.5 17.5 140.8 76.0 59.8 5.1 8.9 14.0 30 Nis 06700G01 54 46 0 100 3.8 9.7 11.8 102.5 62.1 46.7 3.6 6.7 10.9 30 Palic 37000G16 52 48 0 100 7.0 16.8 20.6 123.1 70.4 54.4 6.9 10.6 15.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 51 49 0 100 6.3 16.8 13.2 113.5 66.7 48.6 5.8 10.4 16.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 31 69 100 17.6 18.1 23.7 128.7 72.6 57.7 5.5 9.6 15.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 76 24 100 10.1 13.5 14.3 119.7 69.2 51.5 4.4 7.8 12.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 52 48 0 100 5.1 12.7 12.6 103.9 63.1 48.4 4.8 8.6 13.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 56 44 0 100 5.2 14.8 13.9 114.8 67.2 48.8 5.2 9.1 14.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 75 25 100 12.2 15.3 17.4 117.6 68.1 50.9 5.9 9.6 14.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 75 25 100 11.9 16.2 16.5 125.4 71.2 53.7 5.6 9.4 14.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 32 68 100 16.1 19.4 18.7 146.3 77.3 63.2 4.4 8.3 13.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 52 48 0 100 5.2 16.7 15.4 121.4 69.8 52.3 4.7 9.0 14.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 55 45 0 100 4.8 17.6 16.2 133.9 73.8 55.2 4.7 8.5 13.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 51 49 0 100 9.5 23.4 21.6 124.3 70.8 54.8 9.3 14.4 20.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 52 48 0 100 4.0 11.7 13.1 114.8 67.2 48.8 3.7 6.9 11.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------