***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 19.03.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 13.04.2015.-19.04.2015. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 76 24 100 13.5 12.1 10.1 77.6 54.7 46.6 6.1 10.5 16.3 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 75 25 100 10.4 9.6 11.1 83.2 55.7 46.4 5.2 8.4 12.2 30 Becej 27400G00 0 78 22 100 16.5 15.1 10.3 77.5 53.7 46.2 9.1 13.9 19.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 78 22 100 21.5 19.5 11.9 76.0 52.9 44.8 12.6 18.4 25.5 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 77 23 100 17.5 15.6 11.2 78.2 54.1 45.2 8.4 14.0 21.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 77 23 100 15.3 13.4 14.7 80.2 52.9 45.1 8.0 12.5 18.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 54 46 0 100 4.8 10.4 11.1 85.3 56.5 47.0 4.5 8.6 14.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 79 21 100 27.0 26.2 12.8 86.4 56.0 46.7 15.8 23.2 32.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 75 25 100 16.1 13.2 10.7 76.2 52.7 43.8 6.8 12.2 19.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 77 23 100 18.5 16.7 12.6 81.0 53.8 45.2 9.8 15.3 21.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 52 48 0 100 8.0 15.4 10.7 81.6 54.8 44.5 7.5 13.3 21.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 77 23 100 16.0 15.6 10.8 86.4 57.1 46.1 8.5 13.3 19.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 77 23 100 18.7 16.8 12.2 80.4 53.4 44.3 10.0 15.5 22.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 75 25 100 19.3 17.9 13.3 81.6 54.8 45.9 11.4 16.3 22.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 77 23 100 15.3 12.9 11.5 71.9 51.7 43.4 7.3 12.2 18.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 52 48 0 100 7.9 14.7 11.3 79.7 53.3 43.6 7.3 13.3 21.4 30 Nis 06700G01 52 48 0 100 4.8 9.6 11.3 85.2 56.7 46.8 4.6 7.9 12.4 30 Palic 37000G16 0 77 23 100 16.5 15.0 14.2 82.9 54.0 45.8 9.0 13.7 19.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 76 24 100 11.1 10.0 10.9 80.7 54.4 45.6 5.6 9.0 13.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 76 24 100 14.4 12.8 16.0 83.6 53.3 45.8 7.6 11.9 17.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 77 23 100 16.4 14.3 9.9 75.7 52.6 44.0 8.4 13.4 19.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 53 47 0 100 5.0 9.8 11.3 82.6 55.0 45.7 4.8 8.4 13.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 78 22 100 12.4 11.0 10.9 78.7 53.1 44.7 6.6 10.3 14.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 80 20 100 18.2 17.2 12.7 81.4 54.8 46.4 10.0 15.4 22.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 78 22 100 16.8 13.9 11.7 74.5 51.5 44.3 7.6 13.3 20.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 75 25 100 14.4 12.2 11.1 77.7 52.4 42.8 7.1 11.5 17.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 76 24 100 15.7 13.5 11.4 76.8 53.4 46.0 6.9 12.1 19.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 77 23 100 14.9 12.8 11.6 74.4 52.5 43.7 7.2 12.0 18.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 77 23 100 23.3 22.3 14.9 86.1 55.5 46.9 14.0 20.0 27.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 76 24 100 10.8 9.7 10.7 81.1 54.7 46.1 5.1 8.5 12.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------