***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 19.03.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 23.03.2015.-19.04.2015. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 55 45 0 100 31.7 49.0 53.0 107.4 62.2 51.3 32.8 41.7 51.6 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 61 39 0 100 23.2 38.9 50.8 101.6 56.9 47.3 25.1 34.6 45.5 30 Becej 27400G00 59 41 0 100 35.6 54.7 55.7 106.7 61.6 50.9 37.7 47.3 57.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 56 44 0 100 48.8 69.5 64.7 110.5 64.6 55.6 50.6 60.2 70.5 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 52 48 0 100 43.5 61.1 63.7 111.5 65.7 56.1 44.3 52.6 61.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 77 23 100 50.4 58.7 77.4 115.7 69.9 60.2 36.5 45.8 55.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 61 39 0 100 21.6 37.0 49.4 100.5 55.9 47.4 23.4 33.1 44.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 38 62 100 94.2 95.8 71.1 116.8 70.5 61.4 63.8 77.1 91.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 76 24 100 51.3 55.7 63.2 110.4 65.0 54.4 38.0 46.8 56.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 77 23 100 60.1 67.2 71.0 112.1 66.9 57.5 43.9 54.8 66.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 51 49 0 100 39.3 64.6 62.5 115.6 69.0 59.8 39.7 50.4 61.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 35 65 100 62.4 64.7 63.4 120.8 72.6 63.2 38.6 48.6 59.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 33 67 100 68.3 70.5 70.7 119.7 72.8 63.6 41.7 52.6 64.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 58 42 0 100 44.2 66.2 70.6 106.2 61.3 51.1 46.3 57.9 70.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 53 47 0 100 36.4 57.4 62.9 111.9 65.4 55.6 37.3 47.2 58.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 36 64 100 62.8 63.0 65.6 116.8 70.1 61.1 37.5 48.2 59.6 30 Nis 06700G01 61 39 0 100 21.7 35.0 48.0 98.2 53.3 45.7 23.4 33.0 43.9 30 Palic 37000G16 0 77 23 100 49.5 55.5 78.8 111.6 67.0 57.1 35.9 45.0 54.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 63 37 0 100 26.7 45.1 52.9 103.2 58.3 48.1 29.3 39.3 50.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 76 24 100 52.8 59.2 85.7 112.0 67.6 59.2 38.7 48.0 58.2 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 75 25 100 49.4 53.8 57.7 109.8 64.3 53.1 33.1 43.6 55.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 65 35 0 100 22.4 38.1 50.6 98.6 53.4 46.0 25.1 35.6 47.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 63 37 0 100 30.9 48.2 57.3 105.4 60.5 49.8 33.5 42.1 51.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 52 48 0 100 39.4 60.8 70.0 109.2 64.3 53.7 40.2 50.7 62.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 54 46 0 100 40.0 56.9 62.6 107.1 62.1 52.5 41.0 50.1 59.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 31 69 100 58.2 61.4 68.6 122.9 75.0 63.9 35.2 44.5 54.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 56 44 0 100 31.7 52.1 58.4 105.6 60.6 51.3 32.8 44.1 56.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 53 47 0 100 36.1 55.3 63.9 111.8 65.5 56.6 37.0 45.9 55.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 76 24 100 74.9 84.3 82.4 113.3 68.8 58.4 56.5 68.7 81.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 60 40 0 100 22.0 38.1 51.7 103.1 58.4 48.6 23.6 32.9 43.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------