***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 19.03.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 23.03.2020.-29.03.2020. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 71 29 0 100 1.5 1.0 1.3 -2.7 19.0 24.5 2.3 3.7 5.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 72 28 0 100 1.4 0.9 0.9 -2.6 18.2 23.7 2.1 3.3 4.4 30 Becej 27400G00 73 27 0 100 3.7 3.2 1.2 -2.8 17.3 22.7 4.5 5.6 6.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 80 20 0 100 -2.7 -3.1 -1.2 -2.8 17.2 21.7 -1.7 -0.4 0.8 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 73 27 0 100 0.3 -0.3 -0.3 -2.8 17.4 22.9 1.3 2.7 4.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 62 38 0 100 -0.1 -0.4 -2.1 -2.0 23.4 30.1 0.5 1.8 3.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 72 28 0 100 1.5 1.1 0.9 -2.6 19.1 24.0 2.3 3.4 4.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 65 35 0 100 -5.8 -6.4 -2.5 -2.3 20.8 26.9 -5.1 -3.6 -2.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 68 32 0 100 1.7 1.2 0.0 -2.4 20.0 25.9 2.4 3.6 4.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 67 33 0 100 1.9 1.5 -1.7 -2.4 21.0 26.6 2.5 3.6 4.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 71 29 0 100 1.4 1.0 -0.6 -2.5 19.2 24.8 2.2 3.4 4.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 71 29 0 100 -0.1 -0.8 -1.7 -2.7 17.4 23.4 0.6 1.9 3.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 68 32 0 100 0.9 0.2 -1.4 -2.6 18.4 24.7 1.6 2.9 4.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 71 29 0 100 2.2 1.8 -0.8 -2.8 18.1 23.4 2.8 3.8 4.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 69 31 0 100 2.0 1.8 0.9 -2.1 21.7 26.6 2.6 3.6 4.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 73 27 0 100 1.8 1.2 -1.2 -2.8 17.4 22.9 2.6 3.9 5.2 30 Nis 06700G01 73 27 0 100 2.0 1.6 0.5 -2.7 17.8 22.6 2.6 3.5 4.4 30 Palic 37000G16 66 34 0 100 -0.2 -0.6 -2.5 -2.5 21.0 26.2 0.3 1.4 2.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 72 28 0 100 1.4 0.9 0.9 -2.6 17.8 23.6 2.1 3.3 4.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 66 34 0 100 -3.3 -3.4 -3.8 -2.2 24.2 30.7 -2.7 -1.4 -0.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 73 27 0 100 1.3 0.7 0.8 -2.7 17.7 23.1 2.2 3.5 4.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 74 26 0 100 1.1 0.6 0.7 -2.7 17.3 22.3 1.8 2.9 3.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 71 29 0 100 1.1 0.5 0.8 -2.6 18.1 24.0 1.8 2.9 4.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 70 30 0 100 1.6 1.2 -0.6 -2.6 19.1 24.3 2.2 3.3 4.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 70 30 0 100 1.3 0.8 0.8 -2.6 19.7 25.2 2.1 3.5 4.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 62 38 0 100 1.1 0.6 -1.8 -2.3 20.5 28.4 1.6 2.9 4.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 74 26 0 100 1.3 0.8 1.0 -2.7 19.3 24.6 2.3 3.8 5.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 78 22 0 100 0.0 -0.4 -0.6 -2.7 17.6 22.3 0.9 2.2 3.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 63 37 0 100 -1.4 -1.5 -3.1 -2.1 25.7 30.9 -0.9 0.5 1.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 72 28 0 100 1.8 1.2 1.1 -2.6 18.3 23.8 2.5 3.8 4.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------