***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 19.03.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 23.03.2020.-29.03.2020. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 87 13 0 100 11.8 10.8 8.6 -4.4 12.2 16.4 13.1 14.5 15.8 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 84 16 0 100 12.1 11.2 8.8 -4.2 13.1 17.1 13.2 14.5 15.8 30 Becej 27400G00 88 12 0 100 12.4 11.4 8.5 -4.7 11.7 15.6 13.7 15.1 16.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 96 4 0 100 3.8 2.7 4.5 -5.4 10.2 12.5 5.5 7.0 8.5 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 92 8 0 100 12.1 11.0 6.4 -5.2 10.8 13.9 13.8 15.3 16.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 87 13 0 100 10.9 9.6 4.8 -5.1 11.7 16.0 12.5 14.3 15.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 83 17 0 100 12.1 11.4 9.0 -3.9 14.3 18.5 13.1 14.3 15.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 78 22 0 100 0.5 -0.7 4.9 -4.8 13.8 18.0 1.7 3.3 4.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 93 7 0 100 11.9 10.9 7.4 -5.2 10.8 14.1 13.6 15.1 16.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 85 15 0 100 12.1 11.0 5.6 -5.1 12.4 16.3 13.5 15.1 16.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 88 12 0 100 12.0 10.8 6.7 -5.3 11.4 14.9 13.6 15.1 16.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 81 19 0 100 11.2 10.0 5.9 -4.8 13.1 17.3 12.6 14.3 15.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 77 23 0 100 12.3 11.1 7.0 -4.6 14.1 19.7 13.6 15.2 16.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 79 21 0 100 12.7 11.7 7.5 -4.8 13.3 17.6 13.9 15.3 16.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 96 4 0 100 11.7 10.7 7.1 -5.2 9.7 12.4 13.3 14.6 15.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 86 14 0 100 12.3 11.2 6.4 -5.0 12.2 16.2 13.9 15.6 17.1 30 Nis 06700G01 82 18 0 100 11.4 10.6 8.6 -4.0 13.9 17.4 12.3 13.5 14.6 30 Palic 37000G16 82 18 0 100 11.7 10.8 5.2 -4.7 14.2 18.5 13.1 14.7 16.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 84 16 0 100 12.2 11.3 8.8 -4.3 12.7 16.7 13.4 14.7 15.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 71 29 0 100 6.7 6.2 4.1 -3.5 19.7 25.2 7.8 9.4 11.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 92 8 0 100 12.1 11.1 8.1 -5.1 10.7 14.2 13.7 15.1 16.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 85 15 0 100 12.0 11.2 8.6 -4.2 12.9 16.4 13.2 14.5 15.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 82 18 0 100 12.6 11.6 8.7 -4.5 12.7 16.9 13.7 15.0 16.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 85 15 0 100 12.3 11.2 7.3 -4.9 12.5 16.6 13.6 15.1 16.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 90 10 0 100 12.2 11.4 7.3 -4.7 11.5 15.5 13.5 14.8 15.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 70 30 0 100 12.1 11.1 6.0 -3.9 17.0 22.8 13.1 14.7 16.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 85 15 0 100 12.3 11.4 8.3 -4.2 12.8 17.6 13.5 14.8 16.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 97 3 0 100 11.7 10.6 5.5 -5.4 9.9 12.2 13.4 14.9 16.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 74 26 0 100 6.8 5.9 5.0 -4.2 16.8 21.9 7.9 9.6 11.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 85 15 0 100 12.0 11.2 8.8 -4.2 12.9 17.2 13.2 14.5 15.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------