***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 19.03.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 06.04.2020.-12.04.2020. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 78 22 100 17.2 17.1 15.7 0.6 56.1 55.3 15.1 16.6 18.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 78 22 100 17.3 17.3 15.5 0.6 56.8 55.8 15.2 16.7 18.2 30 Becej 27400G00 0 79 21 100 17.7 17.7 16.0 0.6 56.0 55.3 15.6 17.1 18.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 81 19 100 10.8 10.8 13.5 0.6 55.8 55.2 8.1 10.1 12.0 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 82 18 100 18.2 18.3 14.3 0.6 55.7 55.2 15.9 17.7 19.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 88 12 100 17.1 17.5 12.4 0.7 56.7 56.0 14.8 16.7 18.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 77 23 100 17.2 17.1 15.4 0.5 55.3 54.6 15.2 16.6 18.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 87 13 100 5.7 5.8 12.9 0.6 55.8 55.1 3.6 5.3 6.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 81 19 100 17.9 17.9 14.6 0.6 56.0 55.5 15.6 17.3 18.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 84 16 100 17.9 18.0 13.6 0.6 56.2 55.5 15.7 17.4 19.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 85 15 100 18.0 18.2 14.2 0.6 56.1 55.5 15.8 17.6 19.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 88 12 100 17.1 17.3 13.8 0.6 55.9 55.2 14.9 16.7 18.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 89 11 100 18.1 18.4 13.0 0.7 56.4 55.6 15.8 17.7 19.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 79 21 100 17.6 17.4 14.5 0.5 54.8 54.3 15.4 17.0 18.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 83 17 100 18.0 18.1 14.3 0.6 56.1 55.3 16.0 17.6 19.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 88 12 100 18.4 18.7 13.7 0.6 56.3 55.6 16.1 18.0 19.7 30 Nis 06700G01 0 76 24 100 16.5 16.4 15.2 0.5 55.7 54.8 14.6 16.0 17.3 30 Palic 37000G16 0 82 18 100 17.3 17.3 13.2 0.6 55.8 55.0 15.0 16.8 18.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 78 22 100 17.3 17.3 15.8 0.6 57.1 56.1 15.1 16.7 18.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 84 16 100 12.2 12.4 10.5 0.7 57.2 55.9 10.0 11.7 13.3 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 79 21 100 17.9 17.8 15.4 0.6 55.7 55.2 15.7 17.3 18.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 77 23 100 17.2 17.2 15.4 0.6 56.4 55.5 15.2 16.6 18.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 78 22 100 17.5 17.5 15.9 0.6 56.5 55.7 15.4 17.0 18.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 79 21 100 17.5 17.3 14.5 0.5 55.2 54.6 15.3 16.9 18.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 79 21 100 17.7 17.7 14.1 0.5 55.7 55.0 15.7 17.2 18.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 87 13 100 17.4 17.6 12.8 0.6 55.9 55.1 15.2 17.0 18.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 79 21 100 17.7 17.6 14.9 0.5 56.0 55.2 15.6 17.1 18.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 83 17 100 18.4 18.5 13.9 0.6 56.5 55.7 16.1 17.9 19.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 82 18 100 12.2 12.2 12.2 0.6 55.6 54.8 10.0 11.7 13.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 79 21 100 17.2 17.3 15.6 0.6 56.6 55.7 15.2 16.7 18.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------