***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 19.03.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 13.04.2020.-19.04.2020. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 51 49 0 100 14.8 17.0 16.7 0.5 55.7 52.1 15.0 16.5 17.9 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 77 23 100 16.9 16.8 16.5 0.5 56.5 52.7 14.9 16.3 17.6 30 Becej 27400G00 53 47 0 100 14.6 16.7 16.9 0.3 54.2 51.1 14.9 16.3 17.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 76 24 100 9.8 9.5 14.4 0.3 53.5 50.8 7.7 9.2 10.6 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 52 48 0 100 14.9 16.7 15.0 0.1 51.4 49.1 15.1 16.6 18.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 76 24 100 16.0 15.5 13.1 0.1 51.5 49.8 14.0 15.4 16.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 78 22 100 16.7 16.7 16.5 0.5 56.4 52.8 14.8 16.2 17.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 57 43 0 100 2.4 4.3 13.5 0.1 50.6 49.0 2.8 4.2 5.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 51 49 0 100 14.4 16.3 15.4 0.1 51.7 49.2 14.6 16.1 17.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 54 46 0 100 14.4 16.2 14.3 0.1 51.0 49.1 14.7 16.1 17.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 54 46 0 100 14.6 16.4 14.9 0.0 50.4 48.5 14.9 16.4 17.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 55 45 0 100 13.7 15.5 14.5 0.0 50.3 48.6 14.0 15.5 16.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 76 24 100 17.0 16.4 13.6 0.0 50.2 48.7 15.0 16.4 17.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 54 46 0 100 14.5 16.3 15.2 0.1 51.2 49.6 14.8 16.2 17.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 78 22 100 17.2 17.1 15.2 0.5 55.9 52.6 15.5 16.7 17.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 75 25 100 17.4 16.8 14.3 0.0 50.6 48.8 15.2 16.7 18.1 30 Nis 06700G01 0 76 24 100 16.4 16.4 16.3 0.6 57.1 53.2 14.5 15.8 17.1 30 Palic 37000G16 58 42 0 100 13.7 15.7 13.8 0.1 50.6 49.2 14.2 15.7 17.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 76 24 100 16.7 16.5 16.7 0.5 55.9 52.3 14.7 16.1 17.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 54 46 0 100 8.7 10.6 11.2 0.2 51.8 50.3 9.0 10.5 11.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 51 49 0 100 14.6 16.6 16.2 0.3 53.0 50.1 14.8 16.3 17.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 76 24 100 16.9 16.9 16.4 0.6 57.2 53.3 15.0 16.3 17.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 52 48 0 100 14.7 16.7 16.8 0.4 54.4 51.3 14.9 16.3 17.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 57 43 0 100 14.2 16.2 15.2 0.1 51.4 49.6 14.6 16.1 17.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 77 23 100 17.0 16.8 15.1 0.4 55.1 51.8 15.0 16.4 17.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 75 25 100 16.3 15.7 13.4 0.0 50.1 48.7 14.4 15.7 17.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 76 24 100 16.8 16.7 16.0 0.5 56.1 52.5 14.8 16.2 17.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 76 24 100 17.1 16.9 14.7 0.3 53.6 51.0 15.3 16.6 17.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 58 42 0 100 8.4 10.3 12.9 0.0 50.2 49.2 8.8 10.3 11.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 78 22 100 16.7 16.6 16.6 0.5 56.0 52.4 14.7 16.1 17.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------